Pitz Quinella

[ungthjerta]

Jag har lurkat här ungefär ett halvt år men aldrig postat. Den här ämnen skulle ta ett annat halvt år för mig att skriva på svenksa och jag hoppas därför att ingen har nåt emot att jag skriver på engelska:

I live during the winter in Oregon and summer in Sweden. I am a member of TVG and can bet online on most US racetracks that have an off-track betting system, right up to post time. I like the California tracks and I noticed looking at the odds that those for the quinella bet, where you pick the first two finishers in either order, seem a little short for many of the longshots compared to the win odds. I wrote a spreadsheet that "what ifs" quinella bets for each horse in a race as the key horse, dutched with every horse in the race and calculated the quinella odds at post time for 100 or so races. My suspicions were confirmed. There is such a longshot bias for exotic bets, that the dutched quinella odds are close to the win odds for one or two key horses in a significant number of races, sometimes even greater than win odds and in some races (though not often), even greater that the "true" odds with the 20-25% juice for exotic bets added back in. This seems to occur most often for the chalk or second or third chalk (mostly not over 5/1 odds), which is good because it would lower variance.

My question is (I think this is be something only to be guessed at by anyone other than a gambling genuis), for the races where the dutched quinella odds are less than the win odds, considering the key horse only has to finish second, how much difference between should there be between win odds and dutched quinella odds before the bets would become -ev?

I'd rather not ask this question on an American forum, because I don't want anyone else doing this or at least so few as possible.