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Gammal 2014-05-08, 13:57   #1
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10 Lessons I Have Learned about Creating a Projection System


läsvärt kanske för den som har intresse i att bygga egna modeller

10 Lessons I Have Learned about Creating a Projection System
Citat:
How did ZiPS come about? The genesis of what later became ZiPS stems from conversations I had over AOL Instant Messenger, with Mets fan, SABR social gadfly, and pharmaceutical chemist Chris Dial during the late(ish) 1990s. I knew Chris from Usenet, a now mostly-dead internet distributed discussion system.

Usenet was my introduction into the wider sabermetrics community, full of lots of other names you would recognize ...
Spoiler:
Lesson #1: Developing a Projection System is a Lot of Work
Lesson #2: People Overrate the Odds of a Player Improving
Lesson #3: Historical Data Sucks
Lesson #4: There’s a Lot We Still Don’t Know About Advanced Statistics
Lesson #5: We Could Do a Lot More With Better Minor League Data
Lesson #6: People Get Really Mad at Algorithms
Lesson #7: Having a Programming Background is Very Useful
Lesson #8: Results are “Stickier” In-Season than Season-to-Season
Lesson #9: Sometimes, Simple is Better
Lesson #10: Don’t Let the Projections Affect Your Rooting Interests
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"…a soccer match is equivalent to two teams throwing a dice. The number 6 means goal and the number of attempts of both teams is fixed already at the beginning of the match, reflecting their respective fitness in that season."
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