RobinD - Blandat

[RobinD]

2010-12-22 12:00

Internationals

China vs FYR Macedonia

-0.75

FT

1

2.140

Motivering

Kina är en duglig nation i Asien som förbereder inför 2011 AFC Asian Cup i Januari. Kina är som de flesta andra asiatiska länder väldigt seriösa i sitt träningsspelande. Nordkorea hade ju stängt träningsläger i ett halvår innan VM typ.

Makedonien reser med endast 18 spelare, mestadels juniorer, debutanter och spelare från inhemska ligan.

FYR Macedonia Squad:

Goalkeepers:
Kristijan Naumovski - Dinamo Bucureşti, Romania
Martin Bogatinov - Rabotnicki

Defenders:
Mende Stepanovski - Renova
Igor Kralevski - Metalurg
Daniel Mojsov - Vojvodina, Serbia
Aleksandar Todorovski - Rad, Serbia
Vlade Lazarevski - Lokomotiv Astana, Kazakhstan
Aleksandar Lazevski - Partizan, Serbia
Nikola Karcev - Shanghai Dongya, China
Zlatko Tanevski - Bełchatów, Poland

Midfielders:
Muhamed Demiri - Thun, Switzerland
Armend Alimi - Istra 1961, Croatia
Nikola Gligorov - Rabotnicki
Borce Manevski - Rabotnicki

Attackers:
Bajram Fetai - Nordsjælland, Denmark
Hristijan Kirovski - Skopje
Mirko Ivanovski - Arka, Poland
Ferhan Hasani - Shkendija

Från senaste matchen i EM-kvalet mot Ryssland återfinns endast en av startspelarna i truppen, A. Lazevski. Otaliga spelare med landslagsmeriter saknas.

Kina kommer med i princip det bästa de har, saknar 2 spelare från Bundesliga och Bundesliga 2.

[velpelle]

Ursprungligen postat av RobinD

Kanske dum men fegar och kör -0,5. Tack för dina lir.

Kom igen nu ristrampare.

[RobinD]

Ursprungligen postat av velpelle

Kanske dum men fegar och kör -0,5. Tack för dina lir.

Kom igen nu ristrampare.

Det kan räcka helt och hållet, jag borde kanske göra det själv Men jag daskar i lite till

[AndreasH]

Dum fråga kanske men där är väl egentligen ingen skillnad helt praktiskt på -0.75 och -0.5?
Jag menar det går ju bara att göra hela mål

[RobinD]

Ursprungligen postat av andreash79

Dum fråga kanske men där är väl egentligen ingen skillnad helt praktiskt på -0.75 och -0.5?
Jag menar det går ju bara att göra hela mål

Klart det är skillnad, annars hade det ju inte funnit anledning att spela -0.75 istället för -0.5 och heller inte varit olika odds.

Googla asian hcp.

[dNa]

Ursprungligen postat av andreash79

Dum fråga kanske men där är väl egentligen ingen skillnad helt praktiskt på -0.75 och -0.5?
Jag menar det går ju bara att göra hela mål

https://www.sharps.se/forums/spelskolan3

[AndreasH]

Läst och lärt.. Tack!

[RobinD]

2010-12-22 20:30

German Cup

Aachen vs Frankfurt ÖVER

Ö 2.5

FT

1

1.940

Kör min motivering på engelska denna gång då jag inte orkar skriva den först på engelska och sen på svenska, kan bli så ett tag framöver.

Aachen vs Frankfurt

Pk over 2.5 @ 1.94 ladbrokes 4/10

Reasoning

Two offensive teams here, Aachen from Bundesliga 2 is 75% over on their home field in bundesliga 2. Scoring 25 and recieving 24 in 17 games makes it an average on 2.88. Only 2 clean sheets at home against 2 teams worse placed in Bundesliga 2.

Frankfurt over in 78% of their away games in bundesliga scoring 24 and recieving 21 goals in 17 matches makes it an average of 2.64.

Today we have these lineups according to frankfurt homepage:

EINTRACHT: Michael Skibbe könnte am heutigen Mittwoch folgende Elf auf das Feld schicken: Fährmann – Jung , Vasoski, Schwegler, Tzavellas – Clark, Köhler (Korkmaz) - Ochs, Meier, Altintop – Gekas

AACHEN: Hohs – Casper, Stehle, Feisthammel, Achenbach – Kratz – Höger, Arslan, Junglas – Auer, Stieber

This means that Frankfurt starts with the reserve keeper in goal, and lets Vasoski start in the back with only 6 games so far this season. Clark takes place on the midfield and he started only 4 games this season. Besides that we have a fair lineup, with the offensive players intact.

Aachen starts with a strong lineup and shows that they are seriuos in this match. I find it unlikely that we will see any team keeping a clean sheet here and most likely we will see more than 3 goals.

Not that it matters but both teams are over in both their cup ties this season and they are over in 9 and 8 out of last 10 over the last couple of years. The sides met some years ago and it ended 6-4, I hope to see that again.

Ladbrokes are offering high 1.94, Pinnacle 1.90. I think that over should be more of a favourite, as some bookies agree with and keeps it down to 1.75ish.

[RobinD]

2010-12-22 20:30

German Cup

Stuttgart vs B Munich

2

FT

1

1.990

Reasoning

Only three days ago Stuttgart hosted Bayern and lost 3-5 to a team without Bastian Schweinstieger, they are not able to field the same team today:

Missing is Gebhart, Niedermeier, Camoranesi, Marica and Degen.

Kuzmanovic and Bicakik started last match and are now on the bench. Some reorganising har been made to both defense and midfield.

The truth is that Stuttgart did not play bad last time, they had the same amount or even more chanses then BM but they are a disaster at the back and BM knows how to take advantage of that. Gomez is on fire and now Scheinstiger is back to support.

I will ignore the odds drop on Stuttgart, I have waited all day to see BM over 2.00 but I took 1.99 as I see it good enough for a punt.

[RobinD]

2-1 och äntligen en vinstdag för dagboken igen.

[Frikeer]

Det var på tiden!! Tack så mycket för bra picks.

[RobinD]

Ursprungligen postat av Frikeer

Det var på tiden!! Tack så mycket för bra picks.

Det var så lite så, glad att vara till hjälp

[RobinD]

2010-12-26 16:00

Premier League

Bolton vs West Brom

1

FT

1

2.160

Reasoning


WEST BROM: Carson, Jara, Cech, Tamas, Scharner, Morrison, Mulumbu, Dorrans, Brunt, Tchoyi, Odemwingie (Substitutes: Myhill, Shorey, Miller, Ibanez, Reid, Barnes, Cox)

WANDERERS: Jaaskelainen, Steinsson, Knight, Cahill, Robinson, Chung-Yong, Holden, Muamba, Taylor, K Davies, Elmander (Substitutes: Bogdan, Ricketts, Petrov, M Davies, Klasnic, Rodrigo, Blake)

Inconsistent WBA travels to high flying Bolton. Bolton who had a knoch against Sunderland before X-mas but was not without chance that match even if Sunderland at the end found a fair victory.

We have some injuries at Bolton, but I feel that Elmander/Davies is to good for Bolton to be priced @ 2.16 against a WBA with 2-2-5 on the road. Lossing all 3 points to teams like Wigan, Villa, Blackpool and Liverpool. Hardly teams that has been a terror for others this season.

[RobinD]

Bolton ångar på, fint är det.

[RobinD]

2010-12-27 21:00

Premier League

Arsenal vs Chelsea TOTAL BOOKING POINTS UNDER

55.5

FT

1

1.750

Reasoning

First, statistics:

Arsenal averages

26.25 vs 20 at home = 46.25
27.65 vs 19.41 total = 47.06

Chelsea averages

20 vs 17.78 on the road = 37.78
16.18 vs 16.47 total = 32.65

Premier league average is 38.55 so if you messure the expected bookings and even it out so it considers how many bookings each team recievs and cause against the average side in PL we should have a total here on 21.22 booking points.

If you consider the historical aspects it looks like this:

16/12 -07: 10 bookings
23/3 -08: 4 bookings
30/11 - 08: 2 bookings
10/5 - 09: 1 booking
29/11 -09: 4 bookings
7/2 -10: 4 bookings
3/10 -10: 2 bookings

todays game will be held by referee M. Clattenburg and he averages 35 booking points/PL fixture this season. We have a couple of players risking a league ban if they are booked today and they are: Chamakh, Song, Fabregas and Ivanovic this should mean that at they have been told to hold back some what. Atleast the players for Arsenal, since Wenger wouldn't wan all of them away with bans at the same time.

The derbies between these sides doesn't come with as harsch play as many other derbys and I consider this line to be to high.