Speldagbok, American Sports

[maximalvinst]

Spel 5.11

Det rullar inte riktigt på som jag vill just nu. 1-2 dag igår. Detroit Red Wings får bara till ett mål mot Nashville, som vann med 6-1. 5 spel för idag. NCAAB basketball startar idag, och jag har också ett överspel därifrån idag:


1. NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder - Orlando Magic: Oklahoma City Thunder över 103.5 poäng
Odds: 1.91 (Marathonbet) kl 02:00


Över 103.5 poäng för Oklahoma blir spelet här. Dessa är två riktigt lowscoring lag just nu, och därför är totalerna låga.

Ser vi till inbördesmötena mellan dessa har det varit riktigt highscoring möten. Faktum är att Oklahoma har i 10 raka inbördesmöten fått till 104 poäng eller mer. Snittet de 10 senaste mot Orlando ligger på hela 119.60 poäng, och 123.33 poäng de tre senaste möten.

Orlando släpper till 104+ poäng i ca 65% av sina matcher, medan Oklahoma gör 104+ poäng i ca 62.5% av sina matcher.
Eftersom totalen sjunkit pga lowscoring matcher ser jag värde i speciellt Oklahomas teamtotal här.




2. NCAAB
NC State - Georgia Tech: över 151 poäng
Odds: 1.93 (Unibet) kl 02:30

Jag väljer här överspelet i denna match. Detta är en matchup som trendar mot highscoring matcher inbördes, speciellt med NC State som hemmalag.

Georgia Tech har 3 av sina riktiga topscorers från förra säsongen med denna säsong, och därtill har man en riktigt scorer i Bubba Parham som snittade 21 poäng för VMI förra säsongen. NC State har också 4 starters från förra säsongen, och man har också en balanserad offensiv.

Georgia Tech är 5-1 över totalen de 6 senaste matcherna.
Georgia Tech är 5-1 över totalen de 6 senaste mot Atlantic Coast conference.
Man är 5-2 över totalen de 7 senaste inbördesmötena.
Man är 11-1 över totalen de 12 senaste inbördesmötena i North Carolina.




3. NHL
Toronto Maple Leafs - LA Kings: över 6 mål
Odds: 1.86 (Unibet) kl 01:30

Detta är två lag som spelar riktigt fartfylld och öppen ishockey. Toronto snittar på hemmaplan 3.67 mål, medan man släpper till också 3.67 mål. LA Kings snittar 2.57 mål på bortaplan medan man släpper till hela 4.86 mål.
Toronto är 6-3 över totalen på hemmaplan i år, medan LA Kings är 5-1-1 över totalen på bortaplan.

Toronto är 6-2 över totalen de 8 senaste matcherna.
Toronto är 8-3 över totalen de 11 senaste hemmamatcherna.
Kings är 4-1 över totalen de 5 senaste matcherna.
Kings är 11-5 över totalen de 16 senaste mot Eastern conference.




4. NHL
Montreal Canadiens - Boston Bruins: över 1.5 mål 1st period
Odds: 1.80 (Marathonbet) kl 01:30
Målsnitt hemma/borta offensivt och defensivt: 2.50 mål




5. NHL
Toronto Maple Leafs - LA Kings: över 1.5 mål 1st period
Odds: 1.70 (Marathonbet) kl 01:30
Målsnitt hemma/borta offensivt och defensivt: 2.29 mål





Det var allt för idag!
Lycka till!

[maximalvinst]

Spel 13.11

Har varit frånvarande några dagar då det inte funnits tid för spel alls. Spelar ett överspel idag:

1. NBA
LA Lakers - Golden State Warriors: Golden State över 105.5 poäng
Odds: 1.92 (Unibet) kl 04:10


Jag spelar alltså Warriors idag. Jag vet att man är i trubbel denna säsong då man har skador på Curry och Thompson just nu. Men man måste hitta ett sätt att börja vinna matcher ifall man tänker vara med i slutspel denna säsong.

Tittar vi på de senaste mötena mellan dessa har Warriors varit mycket lyckosamma mot Lakers. Man har snittat 114.50 de 10 senaste mötena och 117 poäng de 3 senaste. I 9 av 10 matcher har man passerat 105 poäng.
Warriors har gjort 106 poäng eller mer i 8 av sina 10 senaste matcher, och Lakers har släppt till 106+ poäng i 6 av sina 10 senaste matcher. Inbördes och individuellt blir detta sammanlagt 23 av 30 matcher, vilket ger 76.6%.




Det var allt för idag!
Lycka till!

[maximalvinst]

Spel 14.11

Gårdagens spel förlorade då Warriors inte gjorde ett dugg i sista quartern, och vi hamnar en bit ifrån 106 poäng här. Tre spel för idag:


1. NHL-trippel
Tampa Bay - NY Rangers: NY Rangers ö 1.5 mål
Odds: 1.34 (Unibet) kl 01:00

Anaheim - San Jose: San Jose ö 1.5 mål
Odds: 1.20 (Unibet) kl 04:00

Vancouver - Dallas: Dallas ö 1.5 mål
Odds: 1.34 (Unibet) kl 04:00

Totalt odds: 2.15


Jag ser värde i denna trippel, då alla dessa lag gör över 1.5 mål betydligt oftare än vad oddsen indikerar här.

Rangers har gjort 2 mål eller mer i 10 raka matcher. Tampa Bay har släppt in 2 mål eller fler i 9 av de 10 senaste matcherna. Detta ger 95% och oddset 1.05.

San Jose har gjort 2 mål eller fler i 8 av sina 10 senaste matcher. Anaheim har släppt in 2 mål eller fler i 9 av sina 10 senaste matcher. Detta ger 85% och oddset 1.18.

Dallas har gjort 2 mål eller fler i 9 av sina 10 senaste matcher. Vancouver har släppt in 2 mål eller fler i 10 raka matcher. Detta ger 95% och oddset 1.05.





2. NCAAB
Arizona State Sun Devils - Central Connecticut State: över 152 poäng
Odds: 1.93 (Unibet) kl 04:00

Här har vi två lag som spelar med hög pace och som inte har speciellt bra defensiv.

Arizona State har i adjusted offensive efficiency 103.3, och är på 80:de plats här och klart i övre halvan. I adjusted tempo ligger man på 20:de plats med 75.8, och är här i absoluta toppen.

C.Connecticut St har ett av de sämsta försvaren just nu. Man ligger på plats 346 i adjusted defensive efficiency med 108.1. I adjusted tempo är man högt uppe på 60:de plats med 73.8.

Arizona St är favoriter med 27.5 poäng, och jag tror att man drar upp tempot här och tvingar moståndarna att hänga med.





3. NFL
Cleveland Browns - Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh över 19.5 poäng
Odds: 1.87 (Unibet) kl 02:20

Jag spelar här Steelers över 19.5 poäng. Man får till 20+ poäng betydligt oftare än oddset indikerar här, och Browns släpper också till 20+ poäng tillräckligt ofta.

Steelers har gjort 20+ poäng i 7 av sina 10 senaste matcher, och också i 9 av 10 inbördesmöten. Browns har släppt till 20+ poäng i 8 av sina 10 senaste matcher.

Pittsburgh har snittat 25.20 poäng de 10 senaste inbördesmötena, och 27.33 poäng de tre senaste. 20 poäng skall man kunna nå här.






Det var allt för idag!
Lycka till!

[maximalvinst]

Veckans NCAAF och NFL kommer hit!

Jag har redovisat endast överspel hittills i mitt sheat, men i fortsättningen kommer jag också att spela moneyline och ATS spel där jag hittar värde. Totalspelen fortsätter jag med som vanligt, dvs överspel.
Men ibland ifall jag ser värde på ml och ATS spel tycker jag att det är onödigt att lämna bort.


1. NCAAF-dubbel (köpta linor)
Northwestern Wildcats - Massachusetts Minutemen: Massachusetts +48
Odds: 1.40 (Unibet) 16.11 kl 18:00

Auburn Tigers - Georgia Bulldogs: över 33.5 poäng
Odds: 1.38 (Unibet) 16.11 kl 21:30

Totalt odds: 1.93



Jag ser stort värde i denna dubbel. Northwestern och Massachusetts har båda dåliga records denna säsong. När vi köper upp poängen till 48 på Massachusetts känns spelet riktigt starkt.

UMass är 1-9 denna säsong, medan Wildcats är 1-8. UMass har ett uruselt försvar, men Northwestern har inget riktigt bra anfallsspel heller. Wildcats snittar bara ca 13 poäng på hemmaplan medan UMass också snittar runt 13 poäng på bortaplan.

När vi har två riktigt dåliga lag tycker jag alltid det finns värde på underdogen. 48 poäng är mycket, och UMass har de 10 senaste matcherna endast förlorat 1 match med mer än 48 poäng.



Överspelet mellan Auburn och Georgia känns bra när vi köper ner totalen till 33.5 poäng. Dessa lag har väl inte varit riktiga highscoring teams, men desto mer värde på överspelet.

Dessa båda lagen passerar ändå denna total tillräckligt ofta. Man har de 10 senaste inbördesmötena och individuellt totalt passerat 33 poäng i 24 av 30 matcher. Detta ger hela 80% och 1.25 i odds.

Totalen ligger på 40.5 poäng, och den har aldrig varit så här låg de senaste 10 matcherna för dessa lag. 33 poäng skall man kunna passera här.

[maximalvinst]

Spel 16.11

Ett NCAAF-spel finns i inlägget ovan, lägger till några för idag:


1. NCAAB
Wright State - Kent State: över 144 poäng
Odds: 1.93 (Unibet) kl 01:00

Wright State är 2-0 över totalen denna säsong med ett snitt på 29.2 poäng över totalen. Kent State är 1-0 över totalen hittills med ett snitt på 26.5 poäng över totalen.




2. NCAAB
Abilene Christian Wildcats - Pepperdine Waves: över 147 poäng
Odds: 1.93 (Unibet) kl 02:30

Pepperdine är 3-0 över totalen hittils denna säsong med ett snitt på 12 poäng över totalen. Abilene Christian är 1-0 över totalen hittills denna säsong med ett snitt på 27.5 poäng över totalen.




3. NCAAB
Miami Ohio Redhawks - Alabama A&M Bulldogs: över 141.5 poäng
Odds: 1.91 (William Hill) kl 18:00

Miami Ohio är 2-0 över totalen hittills denna säsong med ett snitt på 23.2 poäng över totalen. Alabama är 2-1 över totalen hittills denna säsong med ett snitt på 11.2 poäng över totalen.




4. NHL
Vancouver Canucks - Colorado Avalanche: över 1.5 mål 1st period
Odds: 1.80 (bet365) kl 04:00
Målsnitt hemma/borts offensiv och defensivt: 2.35 mål






Det var allt för idag!
Lycka till!

[maximalvinst]

Spel 17.11

3-2 dag igår. NCAAB-matchen mellan Wright State och Kent State landar på 143 poäng och jag hade över 144 poäng, så de var lite sur. Det blir tre spel idag, två överspel från NHL och ett moneyline spel från NBA!


1. NBA
New Orleans Pelicans - Golden State Warriors: Golden State ML
Odds: 2.78 (Marathonbet) kl 01:00

Jag spelar Warriors moneyline här. Man har börjat vänja sig vid skadorna på Thompson och Curry, och att vara underdog i nästan varje match. Ser vi på Pelicans läge har man ett mycket dåligt record hittills, och lider av en del skador också.

För Pelicans är följande spelare frågetecken, och vid spel inte hundra: JJ Redick, Jahlil Okafor, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball och Josh Hart.
Pelicans är 3-9 denna säsong.

Man spelar också back to back inatt och sin tredje match på fyra dagar. Jag tror Warriors har en chans att vinna denna match, så till oddset 2.78 är jag villig att prova.





2. NHL
Vegas Golden Knights - Calgary Flames

Spel 1: över 1.5 mål 1st period
Odds: 1.79 (Marathonbet) kl 01:00

Spel 2: över 5.5 mål
Odds: 1.72 (Coolbet) kl 01:00


Jag spelar alltså två överspel här. Vegas hemma brukar betyda highscoring matcher, och jag tror på liknande här. Det är stor skillnad på hemma/borta här då Vegas är hela 8-2 över totalen hemma mot 4-7 på bortaplan.

Vegas snittar också hela 2 mål i första perioden denna säsong, och målsnittet offensivt och defensivt i denna matchup blir 2.22 mål i första perioden.
Inbördes trendar dessa också mot highscoring matcher. Målsnittet inbördes har legat på 6.67 mål per match.

Vegas är 7-3 över totalen de 10 senaste matcherna.
Vegas är 5-0 över totalen de 5 senaste hemmamatcherna.
Vegas är 5-0 över totalen de 5 senaste matcherna mot West conference.
Man är 6-3 över totalen de 9 senaste inbördesmötena.




Det var allt för idag!
Lycka till!

[maximalvinst]

Spel 23.11

Spelar 3 spel idag, hinner inte motivera tyvärr pga tidsbrist:


1. NCAAF-dubbel (köpta linor)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Boston College Eagles: Boston C +29
Odds: 1.36 (Unibet) kl 20:30

USC Trojans - UCLA Bruins: UCLA +22
Odds: 1.38 (Unibet) kl 21:30

Totalt odds: 1.88




2. NCAAF
UAB Blazers - Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: UAB -6.5
Odds: 1.93 (Marathonbet) kl 21:30




3. NHL
St Louis Blues - Nashville Predators: över 1.5 mål i 2nd period
Odds: 1.63 (Unibet) kl 01:00





Det var allt för idag!
Lycka till!

[maximalvinst]

Jag skriver just nu rekar i NFL, NCAAF och NCAAB, där jag använder mig av FPI (football power index) i American football och efficiency margin i NCAAB. Det här är spel som jag fortsätter reka nu i ett sheet.

Jag kommer nu också att satsa på vinnarspel i fotboll, de kändaste ligorna här, och använda mig av SPI (soccer power index) som är en slags power ranking som ger en vink om hur effektiva lag är.

Därtill ger man också en vinstprocent åt alla lag i alla matchups, och tanken är här att spela alla överodds enligt detta. Laget som jag spelar skall också ha bättre SPI, och oddset aldrig lägre än 1.60.

Det blir inga spel från Amerika idag, men ett fotbollsspel från Europa League har jag hittat som jag kommer reka strax.

[maximalvinst]

Spel 12.1


1. NBA
Philadelphia 76ers - Miami Heat: Philadelphia -7
Odds: 1.91 (William Hill) kl 01:00

This game was set up to be one of the most interesting matchups in the East, with two powerhouse teams looking to establish their credentials as the favorites to win the conference. Instead, COVID-19 has reared its ugly head and left us with two depleted rosters just trying to get this game played on schedule. The Miami Heat will be without Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, and Kendrick Nunn, all who are major rotation pieces for them. Also missing will be Udonis Haslem, Avery Bradley, Moe Harkless, and KZ Okpala. This will only leave them with around eight players to use on the night, and without all the core pieces that make their defense so fearsome.

The 76ers, on the other hand, were off to a fantastic start to the season until injuries and COVID-19 hit their squad. They are now on a three-game losing streak but welcomed back Joel Embiid to their line up last night and are likely to see the return of Ben Simmons against the Heat.

One major positive for the 76ers that has come from all of this is the emergence of rookie Tyrese Maxey. The young guard has seen an uptick in his minutes, and he has taken full advantage, scoring in double digits in each of the last three games, including a 39-point performance against Denver. With him shooting 35 percent from beyond the arc, he should prove a very adept running mate to Simmons until the rest of the 76ers’ roster recovers.
The Heat will look to rely heavily on Tyler Herro in this one, but he and the rest of the Heat will be up against it, especially on the interior without Adebayo there to match up with Embiid. That burden will fall to Meyers Leonard and Kelly Olynyk, and that will be something Embiid is really looking forward to tonight. With their two stars back for this one, the 76ers should comfortably cover the spread on their way to a bounce-back double-digit win.




2. NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder - San Antonio Spurs: San Antonio ML
Odds: 1.82 (Coolbet) kl 02:00

After three wins and one loss, the San Antonio Spurs conclude their five-game road trip tonight at Oklahoma City. They had a three-game win streak snapped by the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 96-88 loss on Sunday. With that latest defeat, the Spurs have now dropped to 5-5 on the season, but it’s not all bad for San Antonio. Big man LaMarcus Aldridge is finally healthy and has gone over the 20-point mark twice in the last four games. DeMar DeRozan was absent in the loss against the Timberwolves and he leads the Spurs with averages of 21.2 points and 7 assists per game. San Antonio’s issues this season have mainly been on the offensive end where they are 24th in true shooting percentage and 24th in offensive rebound percentage.

The Thunder have been playing extremely well lately, winning their last three games and four out of their last five. Just like the Spurs, they are also coming off of a five-game road trip and come back home where they are yet to win a game in three attempts. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has taken over the responsibilities this season, leading the team in scoring with 21 points per game and 6.8 assists. With no real star standing out on their roster, OKC has seven players averaging double figures in scoring and as a team is shooting 45.1 percent overall and 33.5 percent from three-point territory.

San Antonio has done really well against Oklahoma City in recent games, covering the spread in eight of the last 12 contests. During their 4-1 run in the last five games, only one of the teams the Thunder beat had a winning record. They are also without a win at home, going against a team that’s won seven of their last 10 road games. DeMar DeRozan should be back for this one after missing his last game due to personal reasons. With him back the Spurs will be focused to end their road trip on a high, so look for them to cover in this one.




3. NCAAB
Oklahoma State - Kansas: Kansas -3
Odds: 1.91 (William Hill) kl 02:00

The sixth-ranked Kansas Jayhawks will hit the road for their second road game in their last three overall, heading down to Stillwater to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys on Tuesday night. After getting severely outplayed by Texas (84-59) at home on Jan. 2, Kansas bounced back by notching two conference wins over TCU (93-64) and Oklahoma (63-59). In last Tuesday’s win over TCU, it was the Kansas offense that stole the show–56.5 percent from the field and an 8-of-20 effort on three-point shots. In the Jayhawks’ last game vs. Oklahoma, it was their defensive effort carrying KU to a win–holding the nation’s 24th-rated offense (per KenPom) to 38 percent shooting. If the Jayhawks want to leave Stillwater with a win, they will need to defend well and shoot at a high percentage.

Oklahoma State went 1-1 in its two conference games last week, dropping a heartbreaker Monday night against West Virginia (87-84) and then defeating a shorthanded Kansas State bunch (70-54) on Saturday. The Cowboys’ three-point loss to West Virginia was tough considering the Pokes led the Mountaineers 68-49 with 11:15 left in the 2nd half. Oklahoma State had success against West Virginia when they pushed tempo but had trouble when they were forced to score against the Mountaineers’ set half-court defense. I have a good feeling head coach Mike Boynton and company push pace each and every chance they get against KU. Once the Kansas defense gets set in the half-court, the Pokes figure to have trouble scoring consistently.

The current three-point spread is a fair handicap of the difference between these two teams, but I’ll side with the Jayhawks to get the win and cover. Oklahoma State’s defense is susceptible to the three-point shot, as the Cowboys allow more than 36 percent of their opponent’s offensive output via the three. Kansas does have the ability to hit enough threes against Oklahoma State’s matchup zone defense. They also have multiple defensive stoppers on their roster, and lead guard Marcus Garrett will more than likely be tasked with defending Oklahoma State star Cade Cunningham. Ride the Jayhawks.

[maximalvinst]

Spel 13.1


1. NHL
Edmonton Oilers - Vancouver Canucks: över 5.5 mål
Odds: 1.90 (1xbet) 14.1 kl 04:00


Three potential Hart Trophy finalists will take part in this star-studded matchup. That should lead to plenty of goals being scored, making the totals line of 5.5 a very attractive play. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl of the Oilers proved to be two of the best offensive players last season.

On the other side is the young phenom, Elias Pettersson. With help from J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, Pettersson has helped Vancouver create one of the most explosive top lines in the NHL. These are also two teams that struggled defensively last season and with no preseason, we can expect that once again in this matchup.

Vancouver fans will soon see just how valuable Jacob Markstrom was to their team’s success. Take the over in this matchup.

[maximalvinst]

Ursprungligen postat av maximalvinst

Spel 13.1


1. NHL
Edmonton Oilers - Vancouver Canucks: över 5.5 mål
Odds: 1.90 (1xbet) 14.1 kl 04:00


Three potential Hart Trophy finalists will take part in this star-studded matchup. That should lead to plenty of goals being scored, making the totals line of 5.5 a very attractive play. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl of the Oilers proved to be two of the best offensive players last season.

On the other side is the young phenom, Elias Pettersson. With help from J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser, Pettersson has helped Vancouver create one of the most explosive top lines in the NHL. These are also two teams that struggled defensively last season and with no preseason, we can expect that once again in this matchup.

Vancouver fans will soon see just how valuable Jacob Markstrom was to their team’s success. Take the over in this matchup.

Spel 13.1

NBA
NY Knicks - Brooklyn Nets: Brooklyn -5
Odds: 1.91 (William Hill) kl 01:30

The Brooklyn Nets snapped a two-game losing streak against Denver last night, and look to add another victory when they face their cross-town rivals, the New York Knicks. Kyrie Irving is still missing from the team and it’s unknown when he is returning. Kevin Durant returned after missing four games on Sunday and has lit up the Thunder with 36 points and the Denver Nuggets with 34 points in the two games he has played. With all that firepower on their roster, Brooklyn is one of the best offensive teams in the league averaging 118.5 points per game. Outscoring the opponents has not proven to be an efficient tactic so far as they find themselves at 6-6 after 12 games played.

New York is also trying to stop a three-game slide, but they are also looking to win their third straight game against the Nets. They have one of the worst offenses in the league, averaging just 100.1 points per game. In the loss to Charlotte last time out they finished with 88 points, connecting on 39.1 percent of their field goals and 24.3 percent of their three-pointers. But, all is not bad with the Knicks right now, they have one of the best defenses in the NBA, giving up 105.5 points per game. Julius Randle is their key man averaging 22.1 points and 6.9 assists. Their defensive rating over their last three games has dropped almost 11 points compared to the numbers prior to this losing streak.

Since this is the second night of a back-to-back for the Nets, the status of Kevin Durant is up in the air, but he has said he has plans to play in this one. If he does play that improves the Nets’ chances drastically. New York is playing their fifth game in eight nights and it is beginning to show. Alec Burks might miss this game, and he is their second-leading scorer at 20 points per game. Take the Nets in this one.




2. NCAAB
Wake Forest - Louisville: under 137 poäng
Odds: 1.91 (Coolbet) kl 02:30

Both the Louisville Cardinals and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons have been playing at a very slow pace so far this season. This has resulted in both of these teams being in the bottom half of the country in terms of scoring offense. The Cardinals average only 70.4 points per game, while the Demon Deacons average 72.5 points per game.

These teams have been great defensively. The Cardinals’ size and rebounding abilities have been able to shut teams down. This is the biggest factor for their spectacular defense.

They allow an impressive 62.8 points per game, ranking 32nd in the nation. The Demon Deacons only allow 65.3 points per game, well below the national average. This total is just a little bit too high for teams that are this good at defense and play at such a slow pace. The Cardinals have cashed on the under in three of their last four games. This game should be an ugly game with very little scoring.

[maximalvinst]

Spel 14.1

2-1 igår, och 1-2 dagen före. Totalt 3-3 hittills!!


1. NCAAB
Indiana - Purdue: Indiana -3
Odds: 1.91 (William Hill) kl 01:00

The Purdue Boilermakers head to Assembly Hall to face the in-state rival Indiana Hoosiers in a Big Ten conference showdown. Purdue has won seven in a row in the series, but this is a different Indian team and I think the Hoosiers snap their skid on Thursday. Indiana (KenPom #25) is a defensive-minded team, ranking 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.

That defense will be the reason if the Hoosiers get off the schneid against the Boilermakers. Indiana has the advantage on the perimeter and also has the bodies down low to hang with the Boilers. Purdue plays a four-out, one-in style on offense and they rely heavily on their big men. Their two most utilized players are starting 6’10”center Trevion Williams and reserve 7’4” freshman Zach Edey. Indiana’s frontcourt consisting of 6’9”center Trayce Jackson-Davis and 6’8” forward Race Thompson have the ability to neutralize the Boilermaker big men, putting pressure on the Purdue guards to win the game.

I’m skeptical Purdue will hit enough shots to leave Bloomington with a win. While the Boilermakers rank 49th in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom, they are too reliant on the three-point shot. Purdue ranks 82nd nationally by connecting on close to 36 percent of their threes, but it is inconsistent in the process. In their last game against Michigan State, the Boilermakers went 0-for-11 from deep in the first half–mustering only 16 points.

They were able to flip the script in the second half scoring by 39 points but still only shot 3-of-24 from three-point range on the night. Purdue was able to stage a comeback due to its interior offense, but Michigan State is not the same kind of interior team as Indiana. I’ll gladly lay the three points to back the home favorite in this one.




2. NHL
Vegas Golden Knights - Anaheim Ducks: Vegas -1.5
Odds: 2.24 (GGBET) kl 04:00

The Vegas Golden Knights are coming off a fairly successful but disappointing (by their standards) playoff run, in which they were defeated by Dallas in the Western Conference Finals. The Golden Knights will be deploying a very similar roster to the one they made the playoff run with, while adding bonafide top paring defenseman in Alex Pietrangelo. They will be competing in the NHL’s West Division, which is looking like it will be very top-heavy. These games against the weaker teams in the division will be a very important two points.

The Golden Knights will be looking to pick up where they left off against a much weaker rebuilding Anaheim Ducks team that has not seen NHL action since its last game on March 11 of 2020 when the NHL shut down due to the pandemic. The Golden Knights are an impressive 7-1 against the Ducks over the last two seasons, covering the puck line in five of those games. I don’t think there is any reason to overthink this one; I see the trend continuing and the Golden Knights coming out fast and dominating a rusty Anaheim squad. I will be siding with Vegas on the -1.5 puck line.




3. NBA
San Antonio Spurs - Houston Rockets: Houston +6.5
Odds: 1.91 (Unibet) kl 01:30

With all of the James Harden drama finally behind them, Houston should finally be unified. Even with John Wall being out this game, Houston still has plenty of options in terms of scoring, including up-and-coming star Christian Wood as well as all of their three-point shooters. The San Antonio Spurs’ star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan is still out due to personal issues. In the two games that he has been out, the Spurs have dropped in terms of their offensive efficiency. They have only made an average of nine shots from behind the three-point line while in the rest of the year the Spurs have been averaging 13 three-pointers per game.

The Rockets’ rookie small forward Jae’Sean Tate will have a much bigger role in this matchup with the absence of newly acquired Victor Oladipo. Tate leads the team in terms of field goal percentage shooting a ridiculous 55 percent from the field. The Rockets should be able to show great team chemistry now that they have a united roster. Wood and DeMarcus Cousins should become dual threats from the paint and the three-point line in this game.

This one should be very tight with the Spurs missing their best player and the Rockets losing Harden. This spread is too high for a matchup like this where both teams are playing without a true superstar. Betting on the best player, Christian Wood, is the right play getting this many points. Take the points and the Rockets in this Texas battle.

[maximalvinst]

Spel 15.1

2-1 igår!


1. NBA
Milwaukee Bucks - Dallas Mavericks: Milwaukee -6
Odds: 1.95 (Marathonbet) kl 01:30

Both teams are riding multi-game winning streaks into this one and one is set to end. Dallas has now won four straight and is being carried by a red-hot Luka Doncic, who has three 30+ point games in that stretch. They have also welcomed back Kristaps Porzingis, who was able to knock down four three-pointers in his season debut. Dallas is still shorthanded though, with several players like Josh Richardson and Dwight Powell missing due to health and safety protocols. That will be felt more than ever in this game as the Milwaukee Bucks have a much more talented and deeper squad than what Dallas faced in their last two outings against Charlotte and Orlando. With Porzingis questionable for tonight’s game with an ankle sprain, and likely on a minute’s restriction anyhow, this should be too much of a hurdle for Dallas to overcome.

Milwaukee’s main goal will be to slow down Doncic and they have several players capable of doing just that. Jrue Holiday is a terrific defender and is currently second in the league in steals per game. With him on Doncic, expect the Dallas playmaker to make mistakes as he struggles to get to the rim. Luka is averaging five turnovers per game and has two games during this winning streak with eight turnovers. I expect a team with Milwaukee’s offensive talent to make those turnovers felt more than ever, especially considering they are a team that likes to get out and run.

It’s easy to forget that Antetokounmpo was not only the MVP last year, but the defensive player of the year too so I can see him being up for the challenge as well. The Bucks are 11th in the league in opponents’ points per game whilst the Mavs are 21st in points scored. With the Bucks being able to focus on Luka, this could be a long night for the Dallas offense. Whilst Dallas is second in the league in opponents’ points per game, they will struggle to replicate this form tonight, as the players that are missing for them really form the core of that defensive unit. The Bucks have won five of six at home and should win this comfortably whilst covering the spread.




2. NCAAB
Rutgers - Wisconsin: Rutgers +3.5
Odds: 1.95 (Bwin) kl 03:00

The Badgers just suffered a beatdown from Michigan. Rutgers needs to pounce on them, as its own confidence might be a little shaky too. The Scarlet Knights have been sliding in January. Wisconsin lost to Michigan 77-54 in its last game. I was on Big Blue, but I have to admit I did not see that one coming and the final score might actually be flattering to the Badgers. That does not take away from the fact that Wisconsin is still a quality team with veterans who have won a lot over their careers in Madison. They are not in Madison for this one and Wisconsin is only 1-2 on the road this season. That lone road win was at Michigan State, though–not against a puffcake opponent. Look for the Badgers to play much better in this one…it just might not be enough.

As much as Wisconsin needs a win, Rutgers might need one even more. After a hot start, the Scarlet Knights have lost four of their last five and the last two have not been close. Ron Harper Jr. is a fantastic player. He is super physical, which helps set the tone and he can score–averaging 20 ppg. He and Geo Baker were both supposed to make leaps this season, but it appears only Harper got the memo. Baker’s shooting and scoring are down after starting the season injured. Rutgers does have good guard depth, but it will be better once he assumes the right spot in the pecking order. The Scarlet Knights need him to be number two.

It shows you how lost the Scarlet Knights are right now that Wisconsin is still a small favorite on the road after getting whipped by Michigan. The RAC can be a really tough venue, albeit less so this season. One of these teams is going to get the win they need to get back on track. It is a close call because both generally play tough and have lots of experience. I am leaning to the home side. They win outright in a game they need more than Wisconsin does and senior guards may get it done in a close one. Take Rutgers.




3. NHL
Ottawa Senators - Toronto Maple Leafs: Toronto -1
Odds: 2.00 (GGBET) kl 01:00

The Ottawa Senators will play their first NHL game since March 11 of 2020 against the powerful Toronto Maple Leafs. The Senators finished last season 30th in points, 30th in goals against, and last in power-play percentage. This will be a youthful team with the average age of 26.5. It will probably be a slow start for the young team as they get to know each other and the systems. Josh Norris, 21, is the top-line center and German superstar Tim Stutzle will play his first NHL game on his 19th birthday Friday night.

Toronto, on the other hand, is stacked with talent and ready to make a deep playoff run in 2021. In their first game of the year on Wednesday night, the Maple Leafs had to come back from down two goals to tie it up and beat the Canadians in overtime. William Nylander lead the team with three points, scoring two beautiful goals, while his line-mate John Tavares also had three points. The Maple Leafs’ offense is going to be a lot to handle for most teams in the North Division this year, but especially for the young Senators team. Take the Maple Leafs on the puck line.

[maximalvinst]

Spel 16.1

NFL
Buffalo Bills - Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore +3.5
Odds: 1.75 (Bwin) 17.1 kl 02:15

This matchup has the potential to be the best game of the entire weekend, with both teams riding a huge wave of momentum right now. Baltimore has won its last six games, while Buffalo has won seven straight since being stung by the Hail Murray two months ago. However, for a number of reasons the Ravens could have the edge. Their defense has stepped up massively in recent weeks, holding their last four opponents to 14 points or fewer. Last time out they limited Derrick Henry to just 40 rushing yards–his worst game of the entire season.

But it isn’t just against the run where they’ve had success. Baltimore is tied for second in fewest passing yards per attempt allowed (6.4) and has completely shut down opposing quarterbacks of late. That will be crucial if they are to stop Josh Allen, who is playing the best football of his entire life right now, but if the Ravens can shut down the run and force him to throw then they have a great shot at forcing mistakes.

Turning attention to Baltimore’s offense, it is beginning to look as hot as it did during the 2019 season. Lamar Jackson and J.K. Dobbins are running all over teams, as they did against Tennessee last week; it seems no one can come up with a way of stopping the dual-threat of Jackson. The worry for the Bills is that they gave up 4.6 yards per carry during the regular season (tied for seventh most) and the sixth-most rushing touchdowns. Those issues were on full display last week, as they allowed the Colts to tally 163 rushing yards.

Both teams boast tremendous firepower on offense, but it is the Ravens who are a lot better equipped on defense to slow down the Bills. Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in its last seven and can bump that up to eight on Saturday.

[maximalvinst]

Ursprungligen postat av maximalvinst

Spel 16.1

NFL
Buffalo Bills - Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore +3.5
Odds: 1.75 (Bwin) 17.1 kl 02:15

This matchup has the potential to be the best game of the entire weekend, with both teams riding a huge wave of momentum right now. Baltimore has won its last six games, while Buffalo has won seven straight since being stung by the Hail Murray two months ago. However, for a number of reasons the Ravens could have the edge. Their defense has stepped up massively in recent weeks, holding their last four opponents to 14 points or fewer. Last time out they limited Derrick Henry to just 40 rushing yards–his worst game of the entire season.

But it isn’t just against the run where they’ve had success. Baltimore is tied for second in fewest passing yards per attempt allowed (6.4) and has completely shut down opposing quarterbacks of late. That will be crucial if they are to stop Josh Allen, who is playing the best football of his entire life right now, but if the Ravens can shut down the run and force him to throw then they have a great shot at forcing mistakes.

Turning attention to Baltimore’s offense, it is beginning to look as hot as it did during the 2019 season. Lamar Jackson and J.K. Dobbins are running all over teams, as they did against Tennessee last week; it seems no one can come up with a way of stopping the dual-threat of Jackson. The worry for the Bills is that they gave up 4.6 yards per carry during the regular season (tied for seventh most) and the sixth-most rushing touchdowns. Those issues were on full display last week, as they allowed the Colts to tally 163 rushing yards.

Both teams boast tremendous firepower on offense, but it is the Ravens who are a lot better equipped on defense to slow down the Bills. Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in its last seven and can bump that up to eight on Saturday.

Spel 16.1

0-3 igår!


1. NCAAB
Notre Dame - Boston College: Boston College +4.5
Odds: 1.92 (Unibet) kl 22:00

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be trying to end a four-game losing streak when they host the Boston College Eagles on Saturday. Notre Dame is coming off consecutive losses to Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Virginia again. Although none of those setbacks are terrible in name, the Fighting Irish are now 0-5 in the ACC (they also fell to Duke earlier in the season) and lost three non-conference contests all by double-digits. They trailed by as many as 24 points in the second meeting with UVA before losing by 12.

Boston College knows a thing or two about halting four-game losing streaks. In fact, the Eagles just did it by beating Miami (FL) 84-62 on Tuesday. Senior guard Rich Kelly, who scored 27 points, talked afterward about how his team had been knocking on the door even during its skid and now the floodgates could open now that there is a recent check mark in the win column.

Boston College is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road. The Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall, 0-4 ATS in their last four at home, and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 against opponents with winning percentages under .400. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the two teams. Take the Eagles and the points, and do so with confidence because they might even win outright.




2. NCAAB
Mississippi State - Florida: Mississippi St moneyline
Odds: 1.94 (Unibet) kl 22:00

The Mississippi State Bulldogs will be eager to get back on the winning track when they entertain the Florida Gators on Saturday afternoon. Mississippi State has not lost two games in a row since its first two of the season, and that is a fate it will be trying to avoid after falling to Texas A&M 56-55 on Wednesday. The Bulldogs have turned things around in a big way since season-opening setbacks against Clemson and Liberty, and that’s putting it mildly. In fact, they have not lost by more than one point in regulation since Thanksgiving. This stretch includes a 78-63 drubbing of then-No. 13 Missouri last week.

Things are not going nearly as well for Florida, which is understandable given all the turmoil of this 2020-21 campaign. Keyontae Johnson, the Gators’ best player, collapsed against Florida State on Dec. 12 and will not return. With Johnson out, they don’t have anyone averaging more than 14.0 ppg (Tre Mann). UF is coming off a win over Ole Miss, but that was preceded by losses to Alabama and Kentucky–the latter in especially alarming 76-58 fashion.

Florida is 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS win. The Bulldogs are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following a loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against opponents with winning percentages of .600 or better. Back Mississippi State and do so with confidence.




3. NCAAB
Alabama - Arkansas: under 162 poäng
Odds: 1.90 (Bet365) kl 21:30

The under makes some sense here. Smith’s absence is big for Arkansas, and Alabama isn’t quite at full strength either. Jahvon Quinerly, the Crimson Tide’s third leading scorer at 13 points per game, hasn’t played in the last few contests. Neither team shoots the ball particularly well from downtown, so we don’t have to worry about this one getting too out of hand in a hurry. Both these teams play at fast paces, and I think that perception has caused this total to get a bit inflated.

Each of these teams are used to running, so I don’t think it will really be much of an advantage for either offense. With each team missing a key piece on offense and neither team shooting the ball well from deep, there’s no way I could go over a total this high.




4. NHL
NY Rangers - NY Islanders: NY Islanders moneyline
Odds: 1.88 (Coolbet) kl 01:00

The New York Islanders looked fast and on the same page Thursday night, as they pumped the New York Rangers 4-0. Andres Lee lead the team with two goals and–fresh off a new contract–Matthew Barzal scored to secure the win for his team. I was impressed with Semyon Varlamov, who recorded the shutout saving all 24 shots he faced. After making it to the Conference Finals in the playoff bubble in 2020, the Islanders look like a team that will be challenging for the East Division title. It will be important to get wins against the bottom-feeders like the Rangers.

The Islanders struggled against the Rangers last year, going 1-2-1, however this Rangers team is rebuilding with young stars like Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere who might need a few games to settle in. With this game being a back-to-back at Madison Square Garden, I anticipate that the Rangers will turn to backup goalie Alexandar Georgiev; he struggled with a 3.04 GAA last year. The Islanders’ offense is clicking and will look to build on a strong performance and take another two points away from their in-state rivals. Take the Islanders.