KK:s Speldagbok

KK · 2012-03-31, 15:52

Hade en riktig dålig helg sist, men tar nya tag inför denna. Har postat lördagens bet i min EFL spreadsheet. Dock kommer jag endast posta previews för söndagens bet.

Sport Football (France)
Event Rennes - Lyon
Selection Lyon
Strength 10/10
Date 01/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price BetVictor @ 3.20
Reasoning

Both sides have some missings :

Rennes miss Kade Mangane, Tongo Doumbia and Y. Hadji.

Lyon miss Chris, Kone and Lacazette - all three suspended.

Important match for both sides. Lyon with 3 good straight wins, and Gomis have scored 3 goals in their last 4, fighting hard for a CL place, and have a golden opportunity with the two teams above them, Lille and Toulouse playing eachother.

Rennes have been in bad form, not winning in 3 last ligue 1 matches. The odds should be closer.

KK · 2012-03-31, 15:54

Sport Football (Italy)
Event Juventus - Napoli
Selection Napoli +0.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 01/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 2.00
Reasoning

A preview of the upcoming Coppa Italia final, when Juventus and Napoli go h2h in Turin.

Juve still unbeaten in the league have only Giaccherini absent. Some of their players have played a lot of matches lately and difficult ones to for that mather.

Napoli, out of CL, now really need to build a run of wins if they want to play CL football next season. Donadei is out and Maggio is doubtful, and they will play with their best 11, as this is an important match.

With the attack of Napoli, and the fact that this should be a high tempo match an over is expected, and I cant see Napoli losing easily, so the odds on them present value for me.

KK · 2012-03-31, 21:07

Sport Football (England - Prem)
Event Newcastle - Liverpool
Selection over 2.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 01/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 2.04
Reasoning

First off is the stats between the two teams :

There have been over 2.5 goals in 7 of their 8 last matches against eachother, with Liverpool scoring at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 meetings in all competition. Together with the fact that 5 of `Pools last 6 away matches in the EPL have gone over 2.5.

Okey now a look at the teams. Both with very capable attacks, players like Cisse, Ba, Ben Arfa for the home side, and Gerrard, Suarez, Bellamy, Kuyt and ex Toon player Carroll.

Newcastle miss Coloccini and S. Taylor @ the back and will field an relatively unexperienced backline.

The guests miss Glen Johnson, as Flanagan could start at his place as fullback.

It Will be two sides going for it and everything points to an over game except the odds @ 2.04 with ladbrokes. So go for it!

KK · 2012-04-03, 18:47

Hade en bra lördag och låg bra +, men söndagen gick åt skogen.
Planerade inte att spela CL och EL i denna spreadsheet, men kommer posta denna vecka i hopp om att ta igen lite.

Över 3.5 på Barca matchen ikväll, gruppmatcherna blev 2-2 och 2-3, så det finns potential odds 2.37.

Kommer också spela minus handikappet på Real, då deraas anfallare är heta och en slakt, som 7-x, som mot Osasuna (och ett till lag, minns inte vilket) den här säsongen har värde, till det oddset.
Sen Över 2.5 på Chelsea, och Över 3.5 på Bilbao matchen. GL!

KK · 2012-04-03, 20:11

passar på att slänga in en NHL bet, som jag rekat för en annan sida, som inte kommer gå in på min spreadsheet.

Sport Ice Hockey
Event Boston Bruins - Pittsburgh Penguins
Selection over 6 goals (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 04/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 1.90
Reasoning

4th and final meeting of the series between the two teams, when the highest scoring team in the NHL, Pittsburgh, visits the second highest scoring team in the league, the Boston Bruins in whas should be a firecracker of a game.

Pittsburg leads the series after winning the lat match 5-2 at home. And a similar cast of goals are expected here.

Pittsburgh are also the team that have scored the most powerplay goals and also the teams that allows the most power play goals.

They come from their 3rd loss in 4 matches 4-6, against the flyers, resulting in NYR to take the division title, while Boston secured their division title, meaning it should be a open and relaxed game.

KK · 2012-04-03, 20:39

Sport Football (Champions League)
Event Chelsea - Benfica
Selection Over 2.5
Strength 10/10
Date 04/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.97
Reasoning

Benfica were unlucky not to score in the first leg, specially concidering the referee missing a clear penalty on Terrys handball.

Still they have great attacking talent, and will surely puch for it as they have nothing to lose now.

Chelsea could concede here as they are still not the most stable side and the nerves can get to them. They conceded two goals, dropping a two goal lead, at Aston Villa, before scoring 2 and sealing the match. Torres scored again.

With Benfica pushing forward, there should be space for counters with Torres, Ramires, Kalou and speedy Sturidge, and I think both sides have good chances of scoring a couple.

KK · 2012-04-03, 20:40

Sport Football (Champions League)
Event Real Madrid - APOEL
Selection Real -4.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 04/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 4.65
Reasoning

Reals attacking line are just on FIRE. In the first leg they won 3-0, last time out @ Osasun, a ground they had not been able to win at the 3 last season, they recorded a 5-1 win, scoring a couple of dream goals.

Benzema, Higauin, Kaka, Özil, and last but not least CR7, are really turning the teams possesion and chances into goals. They have scored at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 8 matchen i CL.

At home they have been scoring for fun in the league and have a great chance in breaking their own goalscoring record in a season this year, set 22 years ago.

APOEL cinderella story came to an end and their spirit seems down. Mourinho will play a strong team and a big win could very well be on cards.

KK · 2012-04-03, 20:40

Sport Football (Europa League)
Event Ath. Bilbao - Schalke 04
Selection over 4.5 goals (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 05/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Unibet @ 4.80
Reasoning

Good news for this bet is that Timo Hildebrand is very doubtfu, and Lars Unnerstall and Ralf Fahrmann the two first choice keepers are also out, so that leaves 4th goalie Mathias Schober to start in a hostile environment ( I checked this huy up and he have hardly played at all the last seasons in Schalke). In any case Hildebrand and the Schalke defense are not the most reliable around.

Neither is Bilbaos defense. There have been over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 in EL. Both teams have also scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 in EL. While Bilbao ahve conceded at lest 2 in 4 of their last 6 in this competition.

Llorente, Munian, Huntelaar, Farfan and extra motivated Raul ( who were just amazing in the first leg) will surely get their chances as Schalke have to attack and goals should come fast and frequently in this one.

marling · 2012-04-04, 00:10

how sure are you that Mou will play the A-team with C. Ronaldo for ex?

KK · 2012-04-04, 20:16

Real startar med :
Casillas; Marcelo, Pepe, Varane, Ramos; Sahin, Granero; Altintop, Kaka, Ronaldo; Higuain

KK · 2012-04-07, 11:51

Har pressat marginalerna, och det har inte riktigt gått vägen, Barca - Milan över 4.5, där dom missade flera frilägen (barca) och Bilbao - Schalke över 4.5, som stod 2-2 i 55e minuten, men där inga fler mål gjordes. Båda matcherna slutade på 4 mål.

Men ingen panik. Tar nya tag med helgens matcher.

KK · 2012-04-07, 11:53

Sport Football (Germany)
Event Stuttgart - Mainz
Selection over 2.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 07/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.74
Reasoning

Stuttgart have not lost in their 6 last league games. They played out an amazing 4-4 draw at Dortmund last week, and their morale should be high. Looking to qualify for Europe they need to continue their good form against todays guests, Mainz.

Mainz are fighting against relegation, a good win last week away to Werder Bremen, 3-0, helped them a lot. Their offense have been very good with the return of Zidan, and the support of Szalai, Ivanschitz, Muller and Choupo - Moting.

The same goes for Stuttgart with the acquisition of Ibisevic, and lethal form of Harnik and Schieber.

Stuttgarts last 9 of 11 matches ahve gone over 2.5, and so have Mainz latest 6 Bundelsiga games.

Sport Football (Germany)
Event Wolfsburg - Dortmund
Selection over 2.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 07/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.68
Reasoning

Important match for both teams. Wolfsburg are trying yo reach a Europa league spot, while Dortmund is looking to extend their unbeaten run as they are chased by Bayern in the race for the Bundesliga title.

Both teams have tons of attacking quality, and both attacking lines are in good form.

Dortmund played out a crazy 4-4 match last time at home against Stuttgart, prior to that game they won 6-1 away at Köln.

Wolfsburg, with 4 straight wins, have seeb over 2.5 goals in 7 of their 8 latest games and also the last 7 of 8 matches between these two teams have gone over 2.5.

Perhaps Wolfsburg can trouble their guests, who are priced at around 1.5 today, but in any case the over 2.5 have better value at around 1.68.

Sport Football (England - Prem)
Event Liverpool - Aston Villa
Selection over 2.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 07/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.78
Reasoning

Liverpool are on a poor run of form. And after losing to Wigan last time at home, they need a win desperately.

Reina is suspended, and Doni will make his first match from start for his new club. Agger and Johnson are still out in defense, and Kelly might be able to make an appearance as he is closing fitness.

The guests have a lot of injuries : R. Dunne, C. Cuellar, S. Petrov, D. Bent, C. Nzogbia among them. They have been fielding a young side in their latest matches and concede rather easily but they also score, as they dont give up and continue to work hard and try.

Last home match they lost 2-4 to Chelsea, after coming back from 0-2 down to 2-2. There set piece defending was very poor, and I think Liverpool can exploit that today. So Skrtel to get on the scoresheet could be a good bet also, as he is a very strong on corners.

The home sides last 3 matches at Anfield have seen over 2.5 goals, with their last 7 games against Villa, at the same venue, also going over 2.5.

Liverpool can by themselves cover this bet, and concidering Reinas suspension and Liverpools poor defending recently the guests young and spirited side could even chip in.

KK · 2012-04-09, 19:18

Har haft en rätt bra helg, kan jag säga. Många av mina bets, postar jag inte här, utan lägger direkt in till spreadsheet´n. Så ta gärna en titt där. Speciellt nu när jag har fått lite flyt, förhoppningsvis fortsätter det så.

joemag · 2012-04-09, 19:25

Citat:

Ursprungligen postat av KK

Har haft en rätt bra helg, kan jag säga. Många av mina bets, postar jag inte här, utan lägger direkt in till spreadsheet´n. Så ta gärna en titt där. Speciellt nu när jag har fått lite flyt, förhoppningsvis fortsätter det så.

Och var exakt finns ditt spreadsheet?

RobinD · 2012-04-09, 20:43

Citat:

Ursprungligen postat av joemag

Och var exakt finns ditt spreadsheet?

Där de alltid finns, i hans profil.

2012-03-31, 15:52	#16
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Hade en riktig dålig helg sist, men tar nya tag inför denna. Har postat lördagens bet i min EFL spreadsheet. Dock kommer jag endast posta previews för söndagens bet. Sport Football (France) Event Rennes - Lyon Selection Lyon Strength 10/10 Date 01/04/2012 Bookmaker/Price BetVictor @ 3.20 Reasoning Both sides have some missings : Rennes miss Kade Mangane, Tongo Doumbia and Y. Hadji. Lyon miss Chris, Kone and Lacazette - all three suspended. Important match for both sides. Lyon with 3 good straight wins, and Gomis have scored 3 goals in their last 4, fighting hard for a CL place, and have a golden opportunity with the two teams above them, Lille and Toulouse playing eachother. Rennes have been in bad form, not winning in 3 last ligue 1 matches. The odds should be closer. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-31, 15:54	#17
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Sport Football (Italy) Event Juventus - Napoli Selection Napoli +0.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 01/04/2012 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 2.00 Reasoning A preview of the upcoming Coppa Italia final, when Juventus and Napoli go h2h in Turin. Juve still unbeaten in the league have only Giaccherini absent. Some of their players have played a lot of matches lately and difficult ones to for that mather. Napoli, out of CL, now really need to build a run of wins if they want to play CL football next season. Donadei is out and Maggio is doubtful, and they will play with their best 11, as this is an important match. With the attack of Napoli, and the fact that this should be a high tempo match an over is expected, and I cant see Napoli losing easily, so the odds on them present value for me. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-31, 21:07	#18
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Sport Football (England - Prem) Event Newcastle - Liverpool Selection over 2.5 goals Strength 10/10 Date 01/04/2012 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 2.04 Reasoning First off is the stats between the two teams : There have been over 2.5 goals in 7 of their 8 last matches against eachother, with Liverpool scoring at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 meetings in all competition. Together with the fact that 5 of `Pools last 6 away matches in the EPL have gone over 2.5. Okey now a look at the teams. Both with very capable attacks, players like Cisse, Ba, Ben Arfa for the home side, and Gerrard, Suarez, Bellamy, Kuyt and ex Toon player Carroll. Newcastle miss Coloccini and S. Taylor @ the back and will field an relatively unexperienced backline. The guests miss Glen Johnson, as Flanagan could start at his place as fullback. It Will be two sides going for it and everything points to an over game except the odds @ 2.04 with ladbrokes. So go for it! Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-04-03, 18:47	#19
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Hade en bra lördag och låg bra +, men söndagen gick åt skogen. Planerade inte att spela CL och EL i denna spreadsheet, men kommer posta denna vecka i hopp om att ta igen lite. Över 3.5 på Barca matchen ikväll, gruppmatcherna blev 2-2 och 2-3, så det finns potential odds 2.37. Kommer också spela minus handikappet på Real, då deraas anfallare är heta och en slakt, som 7-x, som mot Osasuna (och ett till lag, minns inte vilket) den här säsongen har värde, till det oddset. Sen Över 2.5 på Chelsea, och Över 3.5 på Bilbao matchen. GL! Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-04-03, 20:11	#20
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	passar på att slänga in en NHL bet, som jag rekat för en annan sida, som inte kommer gå in på min spreadsheet. Sport Ice Hockey Event Boston Bruins - Pittsburgh Penguins Selection over 6 goals (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 04/04/2012 Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 1.90 Reasoning 4th and final meeting of the series between the two teams, when the highest scoring team in the NHL, Pittsburgh, visits the second highest scoring team in the league, the Boston Bruins in whas should be a firecracker of a game. Pittsburg leads the series after winning the lat match 5-2 at home. And a similar cast of goals are expected here. Pittsburgh are also the team that have scored the most powerplay goals and also the teams that allows the most power play goals. They come from their 3rd loss in 4 matches 4-6, against the flyers, resulting in NYR to take the division title, while Boston secured their division title, meaning it should be a open and relaxed game. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-04-03, 20:39	#21
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Sport Football (Champions League) Event Chelsea - Benfica Selection Over 2.5 Strength 10/10 Date 04/04/2012 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.97 Reasoning Benfica were unlucky not to score in the first leg, specially concidering the referee missing a clear penalty on Terrys handball. Still they have great attacking talent, and will surely puch for it as they have nothing to lose now. Chelsea could concede here as they are still not the most stable side and the nerves can get to them. They conceded two goals, dropping a two goal lead, at Aston Villa, before scoring 2 and sealing the match. Torres scored again. With Benfica pushing forward, there should be space for counters with Torres, Ramires, Kalou and speedy Sturidge, and I think both sides have good chances of scoring a couple. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-04-03, 20:40	#22
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Sport Football (Champions League) Event Real Madrid - APOEL Selection Real -4.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 04/04/2012 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 4.65 Reasoning Reals attacking line are just on FIRE. In the first leg they won 3-0, last time out @ Osasun, a ground they had not been able to win at the 3 last season, they recorded a 5-1 win, scoring a couple of dream goals. Benzema, Higauin, Kaka, Özil, and last but not least CR7, are really turning the teams possesion and chances into goals. They have scored at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 8 matchen i CL. At home they have been scoring for fun in the league and have a great chance in breaking their own goalscoring record in a season this year, set 22 years ago. APOEL cinderella story came to an end and their spirit seems down. Mourinho will play a strong team and a big win could very well be on cards. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-04-04, 00:10	#24
marling Reg.datum: aug 2010 Inlägg: 290 Sharp$: 3129	how sure are you that Mou will play the A-team with C. Ronaldo for ex? Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-04-04, 20:16	#25
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Real startar med : Casillas; Marcelo, Pepe, Varane, Ramos; Sahin, Granero; Altintop, Kaka, Ronaldo; Higuain Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-04-07, 11:51	#26
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Har pressat marginalerna, och det har inte riktigt gått vägen, Barca - Milan över 4.5, där dom missade flera frilägen (barca) och Bilbao - Schalke över 4.5, som stod 2-2 i 55e minuten, men där inga fler mål gjordes. Båda matcherna slutade på 4 mål. Men ingen panik. Tar nya tag med helgens matcher. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-04-07, 11:53	#27
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Sport Football (Germany) Event Stuttgart - Mainz Selection over 2.5 goals Strength 10/10 Date 07/04/2012 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.74 Reasoning Stuttgart have not lost in their 6 last league games. They played out an amazing 4-4 draw at Dortmund last week, and their morale should be high. Looking to qualify for Europe they need to continue their good form against todays guests, Mainz. Mainz are fighting against relegation, a good win last week away to Werder Bremen, 3-0, helped them a lot. Their offense have been very good with the return of Zidan, and the support of Szalai, Ivanschitz, Muller and Choupo - Moting. The same goes for Stuttgart with the acquisition of Ibisevic, and lethal form of Harnik and Schieber. Stuttgarts last 9 of 11 matches ahve gone over 2.5, and so have Mainz latest 6 Bundelsiga games. Sport Football (Germany) Event Wolfsburg - Dortmund Selection over 2.5 goals Strength 10/10 Date 07/04/2012 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.68 Reasoning Important match for both teams. Wolfsburg are trying yo reach a Europa league spot, while Dortmund is looking to extend their unbeaten run as they are chased by Bayern in the race for the Bundesliga title. Both teams have tons of attacking quality, and both attacking lines are in good form. Dortmund played out a crazy 4-4 match last time at home against Stuttgart, prior to that game they won 6-1 away at Köln. Wolfsburg, with 4 straight wins, have seeb over 2.5 goals in 7 of their 8 latest games and also the last 7 of 8 matches between these two teams have gone over 2.5. Perhaps Wolfsburg can trouble their guests, who are priced at around 1.5 today, but in any case the over 2.5 have better value at around 1.68. Sport Football (England - Prem) Event Liverpool - Aston Villa Selection over 2.5 goals Strength 10/10 Date 07/04/2012 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.78 Reasoning Liverpool are on a poor run of form. And after losing to Wigan last time at home, they need a win desperately. Reina is suspended, and Doni will make his first match from start for his new club. Agger and Johnson are still out in defense, and Kelly might be able to make an appearance as he is closing fitness. The guests have a lot of injuries : R. Dunne, C. Cuellar, S. Petrov, D. Bent, C. Nzogbia among them. They have been fielding a young side in their latest matches and concede rather easily but they also score, as they dont give up and continue to work hard and try. Last home match they lost 2-4 to Chelsea, after coming back from 0-2 down to 2-2. There set piece defending was very poor, and I think Liverpool can exploit that today. So Skrtel to get on the scoresheet could be a good bet also, as he is a very strong on corners. The home sides last 3 matches at Anfield have seen over 2.5 goals, with their last 7 games against Villa, at the same venue, also going over 2.5. Liverpool can by themselves cover this bet, and concidering Reinas suspension and Liverpools poor defending recently the guests young and spirited side could even chip in. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-04-09, 19:18	#28
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Har haft en rätt bra helg, kan jag säga. Många av mina bets, postar jag inte här, utan lägger direkt in till spreadsheet´n. Så ta gärna en titt där. Speciellt nu när jag har fått lite flyt, förhoppningsvis fortsätter det så. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten: