KK:s Speldagbok

[KK]

Har fixat en spreadsheet, och här kommer jag att posta motiveringarna bakom mina bets. Ni är välkomna att ge konstruktiv feedback. Motiveringarna är på engelska, hoppas det är okej.


Tip Detail

Sport Football (Spain)
Event Villareal - R. Madrid
Selection Villareal +1.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 21/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.90
Reasoning

Villareal fired their second coach of the season and appointed Lotina, and he couldnt have a tougher game to start with.

The home side are close to relegation and need every point they can get. New missings will be Marchena and Valero, with Rossi being long time injured.

Real dropped 2 important points late late against Malaga at home, ex - villareal player Cazorla scoring a great freekick goal - and maybe some nerves are expected. There away form have not been as good lately, they were lucky against Vallecano and Betis, and they have only one with one goal margin in their last 6 of 8 away matches. And also they have CL to think about.

Despite Villareals not so good record against Madrid, the Capital side, will come for three points and will surely get tough resistant. Villareal have the new coach factor, home advantage, and will play tight to get the draw at least and hope to maybe get a goal on counter.

The odds are great value for Villareal to keep things tight.

[KK]

Sport Football (Spain)
Event Valencia - Zaragoza
Selection Valencia -1.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 21/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 1.85
Reasoning

Valencia have dropped a lot of points lately. Their win against Bilbao away in the weekend were only their 3rd in 11 league games. They have a tough schedule with EL, and some injuries, thats the reasons why I will not go with the bigger handicapp.

Zaragoza are just rubbish, two of their recent goalscorers Postiga and Ruben are suspended and their a sure bet for the drop this season.

Home side have not lost against Zaragoza in 6 home matches and have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 8 home games.

With a european game coming up I dont expect Valencia to go all out, still the quality difference is to big. And Valencia should score at least 2 goals, at least. With Soldado on fire and a lot of quality the win should not come into question.

[KK]

Sport Football (England - Prem)
Event Man City - Chelsea
Selection over 3.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 21/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 3.25
Reasoning

City scoring goals for fun at home this season and concidering their poor overall form in the league and the exit from EL they need a result here.

Chelsea, alike City, need to win and get points to get in touch with the CL places. They look like a new side since the departure of Villas - Boas and their confidence is growin specially in attack. Even Torres got back on the scoresheet in the FA cup.

Still their revival have been against not so great teams, and shouldnt be overestimated imo. But for two teams with tons of attacking talent in their squads and defences that have not been at their best - also Lescott will be missing for the home side and Kompany, whos unfit, can be rushed back to partner K. Toure/ Savic (who made a lot of poor displays) in defence. Barry and Zabaleta are also major doubts - and both teams need to win and City dont lay back like they do away. I see good value in the over markets, both over 2.5 but even more over 3.5 goals.

[KK]

Sport Football (England - Prem)
Event Tottenham - Stoke
Selection Stoke +1.25 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 21/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.95
Reasoning

Tottenham are dipping in form in a bad way, lost 3 of their last matches in the EPL, altough against strong teams, but also direct rivals in Arsenal and Man U, so their spirit must be down. Their attempt to get back on track in the FA cup against Bolton, resulted in the tragic collapse of Muamba, and they need to get their focus back fast. Harry Redknapps future @ the club is another distraction...

Stoke have failed to score in 4 of their recent 6 away matches, but they are a tough and hard working side that should be able to keep things tight. The 6 past meetings between the two side have not seen stoke lose with more then one goal, and shows close meetings. The odds on home side are ridicilous and the value is on the away side here to keep things tight.

[KK]

Sport Football (England - Prem)
Event QPR - Liverpool
Selection QPR +0.75 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 21/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.85
Reasoning

QPR are currently on the longest winless run in the league, 6 matches, and are getting seriously involved in the relegation battle. This after a spending spree in january and the appointment of Mark Hughes as the new manager.

Liverpool have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in the EPL. Last home match they won 3-0 in midweek against Stoke @ home.

QPR are a ambitious side, with a wealthy owner, and the points need to come quickly. The had a good goal disallowed against Bolton last time out, the new signings need time to gel with the squad and the new managers tactics.

They have had more time to focus and prepare for this encounter since they didnt play in midweek like Liverpool, and will surely give the guests a run for their money, I have liverpool as a 1.95 favourite at least, so the odds on homeside represent value to me.

[henke111]

Använd "SVARA MED REK" så är det enklare för dig att lägga in spelen här

Lycka till med din dagbok !

[KK]

Bets jag funderade på men som inte kom med idag pga av diverse anledningar:
över 2.5 mål i PSG - Lyon, och Under 2.25 i Gijon - Mallorca

[KK]

Ursprungligen postat av henke111

Använd "SVARA MED REK" så är det enklare för dig att lägga in spelen här

Lycka till med din dagbok !

Okej, tack.

[hardballs]

Ursprungligen postat av KK

Bets jag funderade på men som inte kom med idag pga av diverse anledningar:
över 2.5 mål i PSG - Lyon, och Under 2.25 i Gijon - Mallorca

Angående franska cupen, hur kommer det sig?

[KK]

Jag spelade på den själv, men mestadels för att jag inte ville blanda in Cuperna, utan hålla mig till de stora europeiska ligorna.

Jag kommer också spela på Blackhawks hemma mot Vancouver Canucks ikväll. Hemmalaget har bra form till skillnad från gästerna, och med en vinst kan dom jämna serien till 2-2 för säsongen. Kommer inte lägga in den på min spreadsheet, pga ovannämnda skäl.

[KK]

Football (Spain)
Event Malaga - Vallecano
Selection over 3.5 goals
Date 22/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price STANJAMES @ 2.75
Reasoning

Malaga undefeated in 4 matches, and their spirit are high after a overtime freekick goal from Cazorla that got them a point at the Bernabeu. They won their last 4 home matches, and are in good form, scoring, and conceding a lot tho.

Vallecano are very good away, but last time out they got a beating, 5-1 from Espanyol, however they bounced back last time at home winning 3-0, against Betis. 12 of their last 15 matches in La Liga have seen over 2.5 goals Their last 5 matches have a scores of :

H3-0, A1-5, H4-2, H0-1, and A5-3

Malaga have similar stats with goalfests, specially at home, and this one should be another goal galore.

[KK]

Sport Football (Spain)
Event R. Betis - Espanyol
Selection over 2.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 22/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 2.10
Reasoning

Betis have conceded at least 3 goals in their last 3 matches. They play very well in attack, specially at home and can score against any team in the league. Missings in the defence is also a good factor for this bet.

Goals in 3 last matches : 3, 5, 4

Espanyol, like the hosts, have good attacking options, but their defence have also looked shaky, and their last 4 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.

Goals in 3 last matches : 4, 6, 5

The h2h between them, in overall, also shows a lot of goals, so these odds have to be tried.

[jamal14]

Riktigt nice faktiskt med Villareal bettet, och jag tror riktigt mycket på över 2,5 i Betis Vs Espanol matchen.
Lycka till !

[KK]

Tack! Tyvärr satt inte över bettet på Betis - Espanyol, däremot gick det bättre på över 3.5 på Malaga matchen, 4-2.

[KK]

Sport Football (Champions League)
Event Wolfsburg - Hamburg
Selection Wolfsburg
Strength 10/10
Date 23/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price BetVictor @ 2.10
Reasoning

Hamburg is back down again, after a good run for new coach Fink, they have lost their last 3 games, conceding at least 3 goals in each of them. Lot of injuries on various players caused an incosistent first eleven. And the atmosphere at the club have not been great either. Guerrero still suspended following his 9 match ban.

Wolsburg have added lot of players this season (and in january) and their form ahve been good, scoring wise to. In form Dejagah is back after his 1 match suspension, and I guess the home team should be good for at least 2 goals here.

it was a difficult choice between the over 3.5 goals and home win, but I recon the value is better for Wolfsburg against an out of form team. But since Hamburg is close to relegation places again, they should provide some resistance, but their poor form should see them as losers in the end.

[KK]

Hade en riktig dålig helg sist, men tar nya tag inför denna. Har postat lördagens bet i min EFL spreadsheet. Dock kommer jag endast posta previews för söndagens bet.

Sport Football (France)
Event Rennes - Lyon
Selection Lyon
Strength 10/10
Date 01/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price BetVictor @ 3.20
Reasoning

Both sides have some missings :

Rennes miss Kade Mangane, Tongo Doumbia and Y. Hadji.

Lyon miss Chris, Kone and Lacazette - all three suspended.

Important match for both sides. Lyon with 3 good straight wins, and Gomis have scored 3 goals in their last 4, fighting hard for a CL place, and have a golden opportunity with the two teams above them, Lille and Toulouse playing eachother.

Rennes have been in bad form, not winning in 3 last ligue 1 matches. The odds should be closer.

[KK]

Sport Football (Italy)
Event Juventus - Napoli
Selection Napoli +0.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 01/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 2.00
Reasoning

A preview of the upcoming Coppa Italia final, when Juventus and Napoli go h2h in Turin.

Juve still unbeaten in the league have only Giaccherini absent. Some of their players have played a lot of matches lately and difficult ones to for that mather.

Napoli, out of CL, now really need to build a run of wins if they want to play CL football next season. Donadei is out and Maggio is doubtful, and they will play with their best 11, as this is an important match.

With the attack of Napoli, and the fact that this should be a high tempo match an over is expected, and I cant see Napoli losing easily, so the odds on them present value for me.

[KK]

Sport Football (England - Prem)
Event Newcastle - Liverpool
Selection over 2.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 01/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 2.04
Reasoning


First off is the stats between the two teams :

There have been over 2.5 goals in 7 of their 8 last matches against eachother, with Liverpool scoring at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 meetings in all competition. Together with the fact that 5 of `Pools last 6 away matches in the EPL have gone over 2.5.

Okey now a look at the teams. Both with very capable attacks, players like Cisse, Ba, Ben Arfa for the home side, and Gerrard, Suarez, Bellamy, Kuyt and ex Toon player Carroll.

Newcastle miss Coloccini and S. Taylor @ the back and will field an relatively unexperienced backline.

The guests miss Glen Johnson, as Flanagan could start at his place as fullback.

It Will be two sides going for it and everything points to an over game except the odds @ 2.04 with ladbrokes. So go for it!

[KK]

Hade en bra lördag och låg bra +, men söndagen gick åt skogen.
Planerade inte att spela CL och EL i denna spreadsheet, men kommer posta denna vecka i hopp om att ta igen lite.

Över 3.5 på Barca matchen ikväll, gruppmatcherna blev 2-2 och 2-3, så det finns potential odds 2.37.

Kommer också spela minus handikappet på Real, då deraas anfallare är heta och en slakt, som 7-x, som mot Osasuna (och ett till lag, minns inte vilket) den här säsongen har värde, till det oddset.
Sen Över 2.5 på Chelsea, och Över 3.5 på Bilbao matchen. GL!

[KK]

passar på att slänga in en NHL bet, som jag rekat för en annan sida, som inte kommer gå in på min spreadsheet.

Sport Ice Hockey
Event Boston Bruins - Pittsburgh Penguins
Selection over 6 goals (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 04/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Paddy Power @ 1.90
Reasoning

4th and final meeting of the series between the two teams, when the highest scoring team in the NHL, Pittsburgh, visits the second highest scoring team in the league, the Boston Bruins in whas should be a firecracker of a game.

Pittsburg leads the series after winning the lat match 5-2 at home. And a similar cast of goals are expected here.

Pittsburgh are also the team that have scored the most powerplay goals and also the teams that allows the most power play goals.

They come from their 3rd loss in 4 matches 4-6, against the flyers, resulting in NYR to take the division title, while Boston secured their division title, meaning it should be a open and relaxed game.

[KK]

Sport Football (Champions League)
Event Chelsea - Benfica
Selection Over 2.5
Strength 10/10
Date 04/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.97
Reasoning

Benfica were unlucky not to score in the first leg, specially concidering the referee missing a clear penalty on Terrys handball.

Still they have great attacking talent, and will surely puch for it as they have nothing to lose now.

Chelsea could concede here as they are still not the most stable side and the nerves can get to them. They conceded two goals, dropping a two goal lead, at Aston Villa, before scoring 2 and sealing the match. Torres scored again.

With Benfica pushing forward, there should be space for counters with Torres, Ramires, Kalou and speedy Sturidge, and I think both sides have good chances of scoring a couple.

[KK]

Sport Football (Champions League)
Event Real Madrid - APOEL
Selection Real -4.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 04/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 4.65
Reasoning

Reals attacking line are just on FIRE. In the first leg they won 3-0, last time out @ Osasun, a ground they had not been able to win at the 3 last season, they recorded a 5-1 win, scoring a couple of dream goals.

Benzema, Higauin, Kaka, Özil, and last but not least CR7, are really turning the teams possesion and chances into goals. They have scored at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 8 matchen i CL.

At home they have been scoring for fun in the league and have a great chance in breaking their own goalscoring record in a season this year, set 22 years ago.

APOEL cinderella story came to an end and their spirit seems down. Mourinho will play a strong team and a big win could very well be on cards.

[KK]

Sport Football (Europa League)
Event Ath. Bilbao - Schalke 04
Selection over 4.5 goals (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 05/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Unibet @ 4.80
Reasoning

Good news for this bet is that Timo Hildebrand is very doubtfu, and Lars Unnerstall and Ralf Fahrmann the two first choice keepers are also out, so that leaves 4th goalie Mathias Schober to start in a hostile environment ( I checked this huy up and he have hardly played at all the last seasons in Schalke). In any case Hildebrand and the Schalke defense are not the most reliable around.

Neither is Bilbaos defense. There have been over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 in EL. Both teams have also scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 in EL. While Bilbao ahve conceded at lest 2 in 4 of their last 6 in this competition.

Llorente, Munian, Huntelaar, Farfan and extra motivated Raul ( who were just amazing in the first leg) will surely get their chances as Schalke have to attack and goals should come fast and frequently in this one.

[marling]

how sure are you that Mou will play the A-team with C. Ronaldo for ex?

[KK]

Real startar med :
Casillas; Marcelo, Pepe, Varane, Ramos; Sahin, Granero; Altintop, Kaka, Ronaldo; Higuain

[KK]

Har pressat marginalerna, och det har inte riktigt gått vägen, Barca - Milan över 4.5, där dom missade flera frilägen (barca) och Bilbao - Schalke över 4.5, som stod 2-2 i 55e minuten, men där inga fler mål gjordes. Båda matcherna slutade på 4 mål.

Men ingen panik. Tar nya tag med helgens matcher.

[KK]

Sport Football (Germany)
Event Stuttgart - Mainz
Selection over 2.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 07/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.74
Reasoning

Stuttgart have not lost in their 6 last league games. They played out an amazing 4-4 draw at Dortmund last week, and their morale should be high. Looking to qualify for Europe they need to continue their good form against todays guests, Mainz.

Mainz are fighting against relegation, a good win last week away to Werder Bremen, 3-0, helped them a lot. Their offense have been very good with the return of Zidan, and the support of Szalai, Ivanschitz, Muller and Choupo - Moting.

The same goes for Stuttgart with the acquisition of Ibisevic, and lethal form of Harnik and Schieber.

Stuttgarts last 9 of 11 matches ahve gone over 2.5, and so have Mainz latest 6 Bundelsiga games.


Sport Football (Germany)
Event Wolfsburg - Dortmund
Selection over 2.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 07/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.68
Reasoning

Important match for both teams. Wolfsburg are trying yo reach a Europa league spot, while Dortmund is looking to extend their unbeaten run as they are chased by Bayern in the race for the Bundesliga title.

Both teams have tons of attacking quality, and both attacking lines are in good form.

Dortmund played out a crazy 4-4 match last time at home against Stuttgart, prior to that game they won 6-1 away at Köln.

Wolfsburg, with 4 straight wins, have seeb over 2.5 goals in 7 of their 8 latest games and also the last 7 of 8 matches between these two teams have gone over 2.5.

Perhaps Wolfsburg can trouble their guests, who are priced at around 1.5 today, but in any case the over 2.5 have better value at around 1.68.



Sport Football (England - Prem)
Event Liverpool - Aston Villa
Selection over 2.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 07/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.78
Reasoning

Liverpool are on a poor run of form. And after losing to Wigan last time at home, they need a win desperately.

Reina is suspended, and Doni will make his first match from start for his new club. Agger and Johnson are still out in defense, and Kelly might be able to make an appearance as he is closing fitness.

The guests have a lot of injuries : R. Dunne, C. Cuellar, S. Petrov, D. Bent, C. Nzogbia among them. They have been fielding a young side in their latest matches and concede rather easily but they also score, as they dont give up and continue to work hard and try.

Last home match they lost 2-4 to Chelsea, after coming back from 0-2 down to 2-2. There set piece defending was very poor, and I think Liverpool can exploit that today. So Skrtel to get on the scoresheet could be a good bet also, as he is a very strong on corners.

The home sides last 3 matches at Anfield have seen over 2.5 goals, with their last 7 games against Villa, at the same venue, also going over 2.5.

Liverpool can by themselves cover this bet, and concidering Reinas suspension and Liverpools poor defending recently the guests young and spirited side could even chip in.

[KK]

Har haft en rätt bra helg, kan jag säga. Många av mina bets, postar jag inte här, utan lägger direkt in till spreadsheet´n. Så ta gärna en titt där. Speciellt nu när jag har fått lite flyt, förhoppningsvis fortsätter det så.

[joemag]

Ursprungligen postat av KK

Har haft en rätt bra helg, kan jag säga. Många av mina bets, postar jag inte här, utan lägger direkt in till spreadsheet´n. Så ta gärna en titt där. Speciellt nu när jag har fått lite flyt, förhoppningsvis fortsätter det så.

Och var exakt finns ditt spreadsheet?

[RobinD]

Ursprungligen postat av joemag

Och var exakt finns ditt spreadsheet?

Där de alltid finns, i hans profil.

[KK]

Sport Football (Italy)
Event Chievo - AC Milan
Selection Milan
Strength 10/10
Date 10/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 1.66
Reasoning

The price keeps dropping very fast. Still it might not be such a easy game but everything over 1.5 has value imo.

Milans injury problems are well known this season, now they have a couple of more important players suspended. Good news, Nesta is back, so is Cassano who made a cameo last match.

Chievo is safe and can play relaxed. That could also mean that they cant defend 90+´minutes against Milans waves of attack, with the same focus and hard work.

Milan still with a lot of attacking options in Ibra, Maxi, El Shaarawy, Cassano, Robinho and Boateng at their disposal.

After the loss against Fiorentina they dropped to 2nd in the league and they will have to win everygame thats left and hope for Juve to stumble along the way.

[KK]

Glömde också nämna att Milan har vunnit sina senaste 10 matcher mot just Chievo.

[KK]

Sport Football (Germany)
Event Hertha Berlin - Freiburg
Selection Hertha Berlin -0.25
Strength 10/10
Date 10/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price sbobet @ 1.94
Reasoning

First off, Hertha are undefeated in 9 of their 10 last matches versus Freiburg. And thats a good tell, before a very difficult match.

Freiburg have gone thru a lot of changes. The remodified their squad not so long ago, offloading a host of players, among them Demba Cisse, their profilic goalscorer. Instead they took in a bunch of youngsters, and they have suprised and played very well.

Even with a lot of defensive absentees, they continued to get results, and are working hard to play top flight football next league.

Tuesday will be a decisive day, like every round, but as Mainz hosts Köln, and Augsburg hosts Stuttgart, the bottom of the table can get a lot clearer.

Hertha brought in Otto Rehhagel recently, to help the team stay up. It have been with mixed results, but surely better then before. And they look to improve after each game.

Freiburgs youngsters, will surely miss two influential key players, in captain Julian Schuster who broke his nose against Nurnberg last game, and will miss rest of the season, according to reports. The man who took over the captains armband from him, was Cedrick Makiadi, midfielder, and also 2nd in the internal goalscoring ranking, after the departured Cisse.

Thats two influential players not being able to help out a injurie depleted and young team in a direct relegation fight away from home.

Hertha have a lot of experience in Otto Rehhagel as coach , but also in Kobiashvili, Ottl, Lell, and Raffael.

This should all favour the home side, in a intense match.

[KK]

Sport Football (Italy)
Event Genoa - Cesena
Selection Genoa -1.5
Strength 10/10
Date 11/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle @ 2.43
Reasoning

Genoa is dangerously closing to the relegation zone. being just above it, with 4 points down to Lecce. Having draw their last 3 matches and sacking Marino as coach and replacing him with Malesani, whos no stranger to this team as he have coached them before.

This will be his first home game in charge, and anything except a win is a big dissapointment, and will anger the homefans.

Sculli is a doubt, Constant and Antonelli are injured and Kucka suspended. Palacio and Gilardino will start in attack and it will be difficult for Cesena to resist them as the home side have scored at least 3 in their last 4 home matches against Cesena.

Cesena, already relegated are playing only for proud. Despite som OK results lately, they are still very poor, and have not scored in 7 of their 8 last matches. Also suffering from poor dicipline they have seen a lot of red cards and suspensions.

Injuries to Guana, Parolo, Iaquinta, Martinez, Pudil and Malonga (and more) will make them even weaker.

Genoa need to put distance between themselves and Lecce, as the teams above them Parma and Fiorentina, play at home against, respectively, Novara and Palermo.

If they dropp points and Lecce win, they will be seriously in danger of going down. So I expect a team with only winning on their mind, and at home against the leagues poorest team who got nothing to play for they should be able to do it.

[KK]

Sport Football (Spain)
Event Sporting Gijon - Levante
Selection Levante 0 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 11/04/2012
Bookmaker/Price sbobet @ 2.00
Reasoning

Having lost to direct relegation rivals, Granada (away) and Zaragoza (@ home) among others in their last 6 matches, Sporting Gijon now finds themselves 7 points from safety with as many matches left.

There next match will be at the Bernabeu, so they cant really count on any points there.

Gijon have failed to win in 12 of their last 13 matches, conceding at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 7. And they will miss Carmelo thru suspension, Eguren, Gregory and Ricardo with injuries.

Manager Clemente have stirred up emotions after criticizing the quality of his squad, arguing in bad taste with reporters and picking som strange tactics against Getafe last time out, playing Alberto Lora out of position in central midfield.

Levante on the other hand are getting back to the nice freeflowing football that saw them climb very high in the first part of the season. The injuries have cleared, and players are hitting form at the right moment, to finish the league on high.

They play Barcelona at home after this one, so they should be looking for points here if they want to make it to europe.

Undefeated in 7 games against Gijon, a side with a unstable manager who have lost both the confidence of his troops but also the fans who have been shouting for him to get the sack, under lot of pressure and low morale.

Gijon needs to win, and they have to attack, and that will suit the guests with their "fast break" style of football.