KK:s Speldagbok

KK · 2012-03-21, 14:30

Har fixat en spreadsheet, och här kommer jag att posta motiveringarna bakom mina bets. Ni är välkomna att ge konstruktiv feedback. Motiveringarna är på engelska, hoppas det är okej.

Tip Detail

Sport Football (Spain)
Event Villareal - R. Madrid
Selection Villareal +1.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 21/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.90
Reasoning

Villareal fired their second coach of the season and appointed Lotina, and he couldnt have a tougher game to start with.

The home side are close to relegation and need every point they can get. New missings will be Marchena and Valero, with Rossi being long time injured.

Real dropped 2 important points late late against Malaga at home, ex - villareal player Cazorla scoring a great freekick goal - and maybe some nerves are expected. There away form have not been as good lately, they were lucky against Vallecano and Betis, and they have only one with one goal margin in their last 6 of 8 away matches. And also they have CL to think about.

Despite Villareals not so good record against Madrid, the Capital side, will come for three points and will surely get tough resistant. Villareal have the new coach factor, home advantage, and will play tight to get the draw at least and hope to maybe get a goal on counter.

The odds are great value for Villareal to keep things tight.

KK · 2012-03-21, 14:31

Sport Football (Spain)
Event Valencia - Zaragoza
Selection Valencia -1.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 21/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 1.85
Reasoning

Valencia have dropped a lot of points lately. Their win against Bilbao away in the weekend were only their 3rd in 11 league games. They have a tough schedule with EL, and some injuries, thats the reasons why I will not go with the bigger handicapp.

Zaragoza are just rubbish, two of their recent goalscorers Postiga and Ruben are suspended and their a sure bet for the drop this season.

Home side have not lost against Zaragoza in 6 home matches and have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 8 home games.

With a european game coming up I dont expect Valencia to go all out, still the quality difference is to big. And Valencia should score at least 2 goals, at least. With Soldado on fire and a lot of quality the win should not come into question.

KK · 2012-03-21, 14:32

Sport Football (England - Prem)
Event Man City - Chelsea
Selection over 3.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 21/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 3.25
Reasoning

City scoring goals for fun at home this season and concidering their poor overall form in the league and the exit from EL they need a result here.

Chelsea, alike City, need to win and get points to get in touch with the CL places. They look like a new side since the departure of Villas - Boas and their confidence is growin specially in attack. Even Torres got back on the scoresheet in the FA cup.

Still their revival have been against not so great teams, and shouldnt be overestimated imo. But for two teams with tons of attacking talent in their squads and defences that have not been at their best - also Lescott will be missing for the home side and Kompany, whos unfit, can be rushed back to partner K. Toure/ Savic (who made a lot of poor displays) in defence. Barry and Zabaleta are also major doubts - and both teams need to win and City dont lay back like they do away. I see good value in the over markets, both over 2.5 but even more over 3.5 goals.

KK · 2012-03-21, 14:32

Sport Football (England - Prem)
Event Tottenham - Stoke
Selection Stoke +1.25 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 21/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.95
Reasoning

Tottenham are dipping in form in a bad way, lost 3 of their last matches in the EPL, altough against strong teams, but also direct rivals in Arsenal and Man U, so their spirit must be down. Their attempt to get back on track in the FA cup against Bolton, resulted in the tragic collapse of Muamba, and they need to get their focus back fast. Harry Redknapps future @ the club is another distraction...

Stoke have failed to score in 4 of their recent 6 away matches, but they are a tough and hard working side that should be able to keep things tight. The 6 past meetings between the two side have not seen stoke lose with more then one goal, and shows close meetings. The odds on home side are ridicilous and the value is on the away side here to keep things tight.

KK · 2012-03-21, 14:33

Sport Football (England - Prem)
Event QPR - Liverpool
Selection QPR +0.75 (Asian-handicap)
Strength 10/10
Date 21/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.85
Reasoning

QPR are currently on the longest winless run in the league, 6 matches, and are getting seriously involved in the relegation battle. This after a spending spree in january and the appointment of Mark Hughes as the new manager.

Liverpool have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in the EPL. Last home match they won 3-0 in midweek against Stoke @ home.

QPR are a ambitious side, with a wealthy owner, and the points need to come quickly. The had a good goal disallowed against Bolton last time out, the new signings need time to gel with the squad and the new managers tactics.

They have had more time to focus and prepare for this encounter since they didnt play in midweek like Liverpool, and will surely give the guests a run for their money, I have liverpool as a 1.95 favourite at least, so the odds on homeside represent value to me.

henke111 · 2012-03-21, 14:35

Använd "SVARA MED REK" så är det enklare för dig att lägga in spelen här

Lycka till med din dagbok !

KK · 2012-03-21, 14:36

Bets jag funderade på men som inte kom med idag pga av diverse anledningar:
över 2.5 mål i PSG - Lyon, och Under 2.25 i Gijon - Mallorca

KK · 2012-03-21, 14:37

Citat:

Ursprungligen postat av henke111

Använd "SVARA MED REK" så är det enklare för dig att lägga in spelen här

Lycka till med din dagbok !

Okej, tack.

hardballs · 2012-03-21, 17:49

Citat:

Ursprungligen postat av KK

Bets jag funderade på men som inte kom med idag pga av diverse anledningar:
över 2.5 mål i PSG - Lyon, och Under 2.25 i Gijon - Mallorca

Angående franska cupen, hur kommer det sig?

KK · 2012-03-21, 23:09

Jag spelade på den själv, men mestadels för att jag inte ville blanda in Cuperna, utan hålla mig till de stora europeiska ligorna.

Jag kommer också spela på Blackhawks hemma mot Vancouver Canucks ikväll. Hemmalaget har bra form till skillnad från gästerna, och med en vinst kan dom jämna serien till 2-2 för säsongen. Kommer inte lägga in den på min spreadsheet, pga ovannämnda skäl.

KK · 2012-03-22, 03:54

Football (Spain)
Event Malaga - Vallecano
Selection over 3.5 goals
Date 22/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price STANJAMES @ 2.75
Reasoning

Malaga undefeated in 4 matches, and their spirit are high after a overtime freekick goal from Cazorla that got them a point at the Bernabeu. They won their last 4 home matches, and are in good form, scoring, and conceding a lot tho.

Vallecano are very good away, but last time out they got a beating, 5-1 from Espanyol, however they bounced back last time at home winning 3-0, against Betis. 12 of their last 15 matches in La Liga have seen over 2.5 goals Their last 5 matches have a scores of :

H3-0, A1-5, H4-2, H0-1, and A5-3

Malaga have similar stats with goalfests, specially at home, and this one should be another goal galore.

KK · 2012-03-22, 03:54

Sport Football (Spain)
Event R. Betis - Espanyol
Selection over 2.5 goals
Strength 10/10
Date 22/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 2.10
Reasoning

Betis have conceded at least 3 goals in their last 3 matches. They play very well in attack, specially at home and can score against any team in the league. Missings in the defence is also a good factor for this bet.

Goals in 3 last matches : 3, 5, 4

Espanyol, like the hosts, have good attacking options, but their defence have also looked shaky, and their last 4 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.

Goals in 3 last matches : 4, 6, 5

The h2h between them, in overall, also shows a lot of goals, so these odds have to be tried.

jamal14 · 2012-03-22, 17:06

Riktigt nice faktiskt med Villareal bettet, och jag tror riktigt mycket på över 2,5 i Betis Vs Espanol matchen.
Lycka till !

KK · 2012-03-23, 00:28

Tack! Tyvärr satt inte över bettet på Betis - Espanyol, däremot gick det bättre på över 3.5 på Malaga matchen, 4-2.

KK · 2012-03-23, 16:30

Sport Football (Champions League)
Event Wolfsburg - Hamburg
Selection Wolfsburg
Strength 10/10
Date 23/03/2012
Bookmaker/Price BetVictor @ 2.10
Reasoning

Hamburg is back down again, after a good run for new coach Fink, they have lost their last 3 games, conceding at least 3 goals in each of them. Lot of injuries on various players caused an incosistent first eleven. And the atmosphere at the club have not been great either. Guerrero still suspended following his 9 match ban.

Wolsburg have added lot of players this season (and in january) and their form ahve been good, scoring wise to. In form Dejagah is back after his 1 match suspension, and I guess the home team should be good for at least 2 goals here.

it was a difficult choice between the over 3.5 goals and home win, but I recon the value is better for Wolfsburg against an out of form team. But since Hamburg is close to relegation places again, they should provide some resistance, but their poor form should see them as losers in the end.

2012-03-21, 14:30	#1
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	KK:s Speldagbok Har fixat en spreadsheet, och här kommer jag att posta motiveringarna bakom mina bets. Ni är välkomna att ge konstruktiv feedback. Motiveringarna är på engelska, hoppas det är okej. Tip Detail Sport Football (Spain) Event Villareal - R. Madrid Selection Villareal +1.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 21/03/2012 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.90 Reasoning Villareal fired their second coach of the season and appointed Lotina, and he couldnt have a tougher game to start with. The home side are close to relegation and need every point they can get. New missings will be Marchena and Valero, with Rossi being long time injured. Real dropped 2 important points late late against Malaga at home, ex - villareal player Cazorla scoring a great freekick goal - and maybe some nerves are expected. There away form have not been as good lately, they were lucky against Vallecano and Betis, and they have only one with one goal margin in their last 6 of 8 away matches. And also they have CL to think about. Despite Villareals not so good record against Madrid, the Capital side, will come for three points and will surely get tough resistant. Villareal have the new coach factor, home advantage, and will play tight to get the draw at least and hope to maybe get a goal on counter. The odds are great value for Villareal to keep things tight. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten: Senast redigerad av KK den 2012-03-21 klockan 14:34.

2012-03-21, 14:31	#2
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Sport Football (Spain) Event Valencia - Zaragoza Selection Valencia -1.5 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 21/03/2012 Bookmaker/Price Stan James @ 1.85 Reasoning Valencia have dropped a lot of points lately. Their win against Bilbao away in the weekend were only their 3rd in 11 league games. They have a tough schedule with EL, and some injuries, thats the reasons why I will not go with the bigger handicapp. Zaragoza are just rubbish, two of their recent goalscorers Postiga and Ruben are suspended and their a sure bet for the drop this season. Home side have not lost against Zaragoza in 6 home matches and have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 8 home games. With a european game coming up I dont expect Valencia to go all out, still the quality difference is to big. And Valencia should score at least 2 goals, at least. With Soldado on fire and a lot of quality the win should not come into question. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-21, 14:32	#3
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Sport Football (England - Prem) Event Man City - Chelsea Selection over 3.5 goals Strength 10/10 Date 21/03/2012 Bookmaker/Price Ladbrokes @ 3.25 Reasoning City scoring goals for fun at home this season and concidering their poor overall form in the league and the exit from EL they need a result here. Chelsea, alike City, need to win and get points to get in touch with the CL places. They look like a new side since the departure of Villas - Boas and their confidence is growin specially in attack. Even Torres got back on the scoresheet in the FA cup. Still their revival have been against not so great teams, and shouldnt be overestimated imo. But for two teams with tons of attacking talent in their squads and defences that have not been at their best - also Lescott will be missing for the home side and Kompany, whos unfit, can be rushed back to partner K. Toure/ Savic (who made a lot of poor displays) in defence. Barry and Zabaleta are also major doubts - and both teams need to win and City dont lay back like they do away. I see good value in the over markets, both over 2.5 but even more over 3.5 goals. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-21, 14:32	#4
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Sport Football (England - Prem) Event Tottenham - Stoke Selection Stoke +1.25 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 21/03/2012 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.95 Reasoning Tottenham are dipping in form in a bad way, lost 3 of their last matches in the EPL, altough against strong teams, but also direct rivals in Arsenal and Man U, so their spirit must be down. Their attempt to get back on track in the FA cup against Bolton, resulted in the tragic collapse of Muamba, and they need to get their focus back fast. Harry Redknapps future @ the club is another distraction... Stoke have failed to score in 4 of their recent 6 away matches, but they are a tough and hard working side that should be able to keep things tight. The 6 past meetings between the two side have not seen stoke lose with more then one goal, and shows close meetings. The odds on home side are ridicilous and the value is on the away side here to keep things tight. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-21, 14:33	#5
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Sport Football (England - Prem) Event QPR - Liverpool Selection QPR +0.75 (Asian-handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 21/03/2012 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 1.85 Reasoning QPR are currently on the longest winless run in the league, 6 matches, and are getting seriously involved in the relegation battle. This after a spending spree in january and the appointment of Mark Hughes as the new manager. Liverpool have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in the EPL. Last home match they won 3-0 in midweek against Stoke @ home. QPR are a ambitious side, with a wealthy owner, and the points need to come quickly. The had a good goal disallowed against Bolton last time out, the new signings need time to gel with the squad and the new managers tactics. They have had more time to focus and prepare for this encounter since they didnt play in midweek like Liverpool, and will surely give the guests a run for their money, I have liverpool as a 1.95 favourite at least, so the odds on homeside represent value to me. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-21, 14:35	#6
henke111 Reg.datum: mar 2010 Inlägg: 884 Sharp$: 3659	Använd "SVARA MED REK" så är det enklare för dig att lägga in spelen här Lycka till med din dagbok ! __________________ Det viktigaste är inte att vinna utan deltaga! Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-21, 14:36	#7
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Bets jag funderade på men som inte kom med idag pga av diverse anledningar: över 2.5 mål i PSG - Lyon, och Under 2.25 i Gijon - Mallorca Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-21, 23:09	#10
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Jag spelade på den själv, men mestadels för att jag inte ville blanda in Cuperna, utan hålla mig till de stora europeiska ligorna. Jag kommer också spela på Blackhawks hemma mot Vancouver Canucks ikväll. Hemmalaget har bra form till skillnad från gästerna, och med en vinst kan dom jämna serien till 2-2 för säsongen. Kommer inte lägga in den på min spreadsheet, pga ovannämnda skäl. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-22, 03:54	#11
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Football (Spain) Event Malaga - Vallecano Selection over 3.5 goals Date 22/03/2012 Bookmaker/Price STANJAMES @ 2.75 Reasoning Malaga undefeated in 4 matches, and their spirit are high after a overtime freekick goal from Cazorla that got them a point at the Bernabeu. They won their last 4 home matches, and are in good form, scoring, and conceding a lot tho. Vallecano are very good away, but last time out they got a beating, 5-1 from Espanyol, however they bounced back last time at home winning 3-0, against Betis. 12 of their last 15 matches in La Liga have seen over 2.5 goals Their last 5 matches have a scores of : H3-0, A1-5, H4-2, H0-1, and A5-3 Malaga have similar stats with goalfests, specially at home, and this one should be another goal galore. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-22, 17:06	#13
jamal14 Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 4 Sharp$: 16	Riktigt nice faktiskt med Villareal bettet, och jag tror riktigt mycket på över 2,5 i Betis Vs Espanol matchen. Lycka till ! Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten: Senast redigerad av jamal14 den 2012-03-22 klockan 17:08.

2012-03-23, 00:28	#14
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Tack! Tyvärr satt inte över bettet på Betis - Espanyol, däremot gick det bättre på över 3.5 på Malaga matchen, 4-2. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten:

2012-03-23, 16:30	#15
KK Reg.datum: mar 2012 Inlägg: 31 Sharp$: 59	Sport Football (Champions League) Event Wolfsburg - Hamburg Selection Wolfsburg Strength 10/10 Date 23/03/2012 Bookmaker/Price BetVictor @ 2.10 Reasoning Hamburg is back down again, after a good run for new coach Fink, they have lost their last 3 games, conceding at least 3 goals in each of them. Lot of injuries on various players caused an incosistent first eleven. And the atmosphere at the club have not been great either. Guerrero still suspended following his 9 match ban. Wolsburg have added lot of players this season (and in january) and their form ahve been good, scoring wise to. In form Dejagah is back after his 1 match suspension, and I guess the home team should be good for at least 2 goals here. it was a difficult choice between the over 3.5 goals and home win, but I recon the value is better for Wolfsburg against an out of form team. But since Hamburg is close to relegation places again, they should provide some resistance, but their poor form should see them as losers in the end. Följande användare gav Sharp$ för den här posten: