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Tankar kring totalspel

Det här får mig antagligen fullständigt retard förklarad men jag måste ändå skriva det.

Kan det vara ungefär såhär bolagen sätter sina linor, blandat med massa kunskap givetvis. Isåfall bör man kunna hitta väldigt spelvärda totalspel på detta sätt.

Tar Spurs vs Pacers som ett exempel:

Spurs snittar 105.8 poäng och släpper in 97.9.
Pacers snittar 96.8 och släpper 97.6.

Spurs målsnitt 105.8 + pacers insläppta 97.6 = 203,4 /2 = 101,7

Pacers 96.8 + spurs 97.9 = 194.7 / 2 = 97.35

101.7 + 97.35 = 199.05 // Linan 199.5

Är detta en ren tillfällighet eller kan man tjäna pengar på att leta efter exempel som det nedan? Jag kan inte mycket om basket utan lägger fram detta mer som en idé?

Basketkunniga personer får gärna komma med tanker kring detta. Känns aningen för enkelt för att det ska funka i mina ögon. Kanske kunde vara värt att göra ett test (utan riktiga pengar). Når man resultat gör man annars så ja.. har man bara kastat bort massa tid :whoco5:

Om man istället tar Nets vs Wizards som ett exempel. Nets gör i snitt 92.4 poäng per match och släpper in 98.1. Wizards gör 95.6 och släpper in 102.3.

Nets poäng 92.4 + det wizard släpper 102.3 = 194.7 / 2 = 97.35 (bör alltså ligga där någonstans för nets, om jag inte är helt ute och cyklar).
Wizards poäng 95.6 + 98.1 = 193.7 /2 =96.85
97.35 + 96.85 = ca 194 och linan ligger på 189.

Och nej jag har inte börjat dricka än ;)

Slipade lite på formeln och har fått fram 4 spel inför natten. Återkommer med resultat imorgon

Citat:

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world's premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process.

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

"You either have a passion for it or you don't," Seba said.

"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig - typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made.

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker's value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game's power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team's local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker's ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public's expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why the Line Changes.

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game.

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC).

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor's decision.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

"The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides," Seba said. "We're not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we're trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we've done that, we've done our job."

Spurs (10-4 OU borta) avg 201.5 total borta i år
Pacers (5-12 OU hemma) avg 200 total hemma

Så slöa är dom inte. Det du först och främst måste göra är att räkna ut respektive lags förväntade antal bollinnehav, eller "pace rating" En sådan formel kan se ut så här för ett lag:

=0.5 * ((FG försök+ 0.4 * Frikastförsök - 1.07 * (Offensiva Rebounds / (Offensiva Rebounds + Motståndarens Defensiva Rebounds)) * (FG Försök - FG) + Turnovers) + (Motståndarens FG Försök + 0.4 * Motståndarens Frikastförsök - 1.07 * (Motståndarens Offensiva Rebounds / (Motståndarens Offensiva Rebounds + Defensiva Rebounds)) * (Motståndarens FG försök - Motståndarens FG) + Motståndarens Turnovers)).

Sen måste du veta lagets Offensiva och Defensiva Power Rating, dvs hur många poäng laget gör per bollinnehav.

När du vet detta kan du räkna ut hur många poäng laget gör genom att multiplicera lagets Pace Rating med deras Offensiva Power Rating och motståndarens Defensiva Power Rating, samt justera siffrorna med ligans avg.

Sen gör du likadant för motståndarlaget och du kan sätta hyfsade sides och totals.

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Ursprungligen postat av Zimond (Inlägg 95005)

Alltid lika imponerande:hattenav:

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Ursprungligen postat av Zimond (Inlägg 95005)

Men för att vinna måste du tweaka den bättre än bolagen vilket är lättare sagt än gjort gissar jag utan att någonsin försökt på detta område..

I övrigt om nån vill fördjupa sig i ämnet finns denna tråd på SBR http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ba-totals.html

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Ursprungligen postat av Zimond (Inlägg 95005)

Intressant helt klart.
Än så länge har linan på 3 av 4 matcher gått "åt rätt håll".
Finns absolut lite att slipa på, du vet inte var man kan få tag på den statistik du talade om ? :)

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Ursprungligen postat av forbannat (Inlägg 95059)

Intressant helt klart.
Än så länge har linan på 3 av 4 matcher gått "åt rätt håll".
Finns absolut lite att slipa på, du vet inte var man kan få tag på den statistik du talade om ? :)

Läs tråden jag länkade...