Ämne: MLB 21/7
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Gammal 2011-07-21, 17:13   #11
dgothe
 
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Reg.datum: mar 2010
Inlägg: 347
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Sabermetrics-Test MLB
Stats: 236 - 128 - 4
ROI: 109.75%
Vinstprocent: 65.00%

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Ursprungligen postat av KP Visa inlägg
Enligt sportsinsight så är det utav 6000 spel i matchen Rockies - Braves så är fördelningen 26% - 74%. Ändå är oddsen 1,88 - 2,07. Dvs Rockies är fortf favoriter.
Vilket betyder mycket pengar på Rockies eller så vet bolagen något.

Vad säger ni mer insatta om det? Varför vägrar bolagen justera oddsen så de speglar public lite mer? Känns som några tiondelar fel rent spontant på vardera sida.
Lite data från Sabermetrics-analysen av matchen, analysera hur man vill med tanke på trackrecord:

Matchup ID: 1476
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies
T. Hanson (18 GS, 2.73 ERA) vs J. Chacin (19 GS, 3.37 ERA)



Atlanta Braves have 57 wins and 41 losses, sporting a 0.582 Win %. Using stats, they should have 55 wins. They've got 2 more than they should and are due for a loss..
Colorado Rockies have 47 wins and 51 losses, sporting a 0.480 Win %. Using stats, they should have 50 wins. They're short by 3 and are due for a win..
Atlanta Braves have scored 399 runs and allowed 345
Colorado Rockies have scored 440 runs and allowed 434

In the last 15 days, the teams have the following statistics

Atlanta Braves have played 11. They have won 6 of these games, scoring 56 runs, and allowing 55.
Colorado Rockies have played 12. They have won 6 of these games, scoring 54 runs, and allowing 47.

In the last 30 days, the teams have the following statistics

Atlanta Braves have played 24. They have won 16 of these games, scoring 114 runs, and allowing 94.
Colorado Rockies have played 25. They have won 11 of these games, scoring 111 runs, and allowing 112.

Kod:
Matchup table
                        Braves  Rockies
Real Win %              0.582   0.480
Adv. Win %	        0.636	0.584
Last 15 Win %	        0.582	0.584
Last 30 Win %	        0.632	0.535
Real diff	           2	-3
Adv. Diff	          -5	-10
Real odds	        1.804	2.244
Adv. odds	        1.821	2.219
Last 15 odds	        2.028	1.973
Last 30 odds	        1.683	2.465
Ave. Weighted Odds:	1.824	2.238
Pinnacle odds	        2.030	1.917
Minimum odds to bet		2.350
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Senast redigerad av dgothe den 2011-07-21 klockan 17:17.
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